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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49235)9/4/2010 6:32:23 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95572
 
This is the weekly look at the Group stocks in terms of percent change. This was quite a week in that the first 2 days were "down days", but the sentiment changed on Wednesday, 1 Sep, to positive. Wednesday was a big up day followed by very good up days on Thursday and Friday.

Bottom line, all numbers were up 2 to 3 percent at the bottom line. Only 3 stocks ended in negative territory.




To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49235)9/4/2010 10:11:15 PM
From: Gottfried1 Recommendation  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95572
 
Hi Don, where did you get that chart? The extrapolation of two data points, less than a year apart, to 7 years is - polite words fail me - very naive.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49235)9/5/2010 10:43:37 AM
From: Sam1 Recommendation  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 95572
 
Don,
"Sept 2017: Projected date of full job recovery at current rate"

I would emphasize the last three words in that silly sentence. There is no way in hell that the current rate will continue. We will either fall into a depression of some sort (that is, unemployment going into the high teens even the way the US measures these things), or we will begin to have stronger employment growth.

These continual extrapolations from recent events--rather than actually thinking about what is happening and why--are what gets us into constant trouble. Indeed, the credict freeze of '08 was a result of people absurdly extrapolating that real estate prices would just continue to rise forever.

EDIT: I didn't see Gottfried's comment and your reply when I wrote the above.

It figures it was from a mag like IBD. I don't recall offhand them making any comparisons between the job recoveries during the Clinton and the Bush41 years.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49235)9/5/2010 2:14:03 PM
From: Return to Sender2 Recommendations  Respond to of 95572
 
From Briefing.com: Weekly Recap - Week ending 03-Sep-10Stocks surged after strength overseas and better-than-expected economic data helped the major indices overcome losses from early in the week. The week ended on a positive note following a better-than-expected U.S. employment report.

The S&P 500 rallied 5.3% as all ten sectors posted a gain. Financials (5.7%), consumer discretionary (5.0%) and materials (4.2%) led the way. Defensive sectors underperformed on a relative basis, with utilities gaining 1.6%.

Overseas strength and better-than-expected economic data acted as the main drivers behind the buying interest.

The much anticipated August employment report marked the most important event of the week. With many economists predicting a poor number, the market received an upside surprise following news that August nonfarm payrolls fell 54,000, much better than the Briefing.com consensus of that called for a decline of 120,000. The September reading was revised to a decline of 54,000, an improvement over the original decline of 131,000.

Private nonfarm payrolls rose 67,000, which was better than the 44,000 consensus. Private payrolls have increased each month since January. The unemployment rate rose to 9.6% from 9.5%, as expected.

The labor market is continuing to struggle, though recent employment reports suggest there is a very low probability of a double-dip recession.

In other economic data, the August Consumer Confidence reading encouraged some buying interest in stocks after confidence climbed to 53.5 from 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus 51.0).

The market reacted positively to news that the August ISM Index rose to 56.3 from 55.5, well ahead of the Briefing.com consensus that called for a decline to 52.9. Later in the week the ISM Services report came in below estimates, but the market managed to shrug off the negative news.

The housing market got a glimmer of positive news after the July pending home sales index increased 5.2% m/m, which was well above the Briefing.com consensus that called for an unchanged reading.

Although we are in the slow period for earnings reports, there was plenty of corporate action on the M&A front.

Intel (INTC) announced plans to acquire the wireless unit of Infineon Technologies for $1.4 bln in cash.

Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) offered $18.5 bln in cash to acquire Genzyme (GENZ). Genzyme rejected the offer.

3M (MMM) is acquiring Cogent (COGT) for $430 mln, or $10.50 for per share. Separately, 3M is going to pay $230 million to acquire Israel-based Attenti Holdings.

In other corporate news, Monsanto (MON) came under pressure after the company issued a downside FY2010 EPS forecast of between $2.40 and $2.45 compared to the $2.49 consensus. Shares of Monsanto fell 1.4% for the week.

Meanwhile, retailers benefited from better-than-expected August same store reports from the likes of Abercrombie (ANF), Costco (COST) and Macy's (M), among others.

As stocks rallied, Treasury yields spiked higher. The 10-year note yield rebounded to end the week at 2.70%, a 28 basis point rebound from its intraweek low of 2.45%.

Commodities prices gained, with the CRB Index up 2.1%.

Index Started Week Ended Week Change % Change YTD %
DJIA 10150.65 10447.93 297.28 2.9 0.2
Nasdaq 2153.63 2233.75 80.12 3.7 -1.6
S&P 500 1064.59 1104.51 39.92 3.7 -0.9
Russell 2000 616.76 643.36 26.60 4.3 2.9

10:10 am FNSR Issues Upside Q2 Revs Guidance (FNSR)

Finisar (FNSR 15.54 +1.93) reported first quarter earnings of $0.31 per share, $0.08 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.23.

Revenues rose 61.5% year-over-year to $207.8 million, above the $201.1 million consensus.

For the second quarter, the company expects to see revenue in the range of $215 million to $230 million versus the $206.21 million Thomson Reuters consensus. On a GAAP basis, operating margin is expected to exceed 11.5%.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49235)9/30/2010 7:01:41 PM
From: Sam1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 95572
 
General market comment -- Oct and Q4 forecast

Don, now that the month is over, I'll take a little bow:

Sam, you have been very prescient.:)

<<There might be a day or two in early Sept where the market swoons, and it is certainly true that I've been wrong plenty of times before, but--I think Sept might fool a lot of people who are waiting for a huge down move after Labor Day.>>

Message 26800545

September turned out to be the best Sept since 1939:

The Dow gained 7.7 percent in the month, making it the strongest September since 1939, at the dawn of World War II. However that runup followed a dismal August, and the Dow is still only up 3.5 percent for the year and is 3.7 percent below its closing high for 2010 reached on April 26.

I think expectations are still so so low for the economy and returns on interest bearing investments also so so low, that every piece of good macro economic news will be met with buying at this point. Especially on the employment front, but really everywhere:

Traders were initially upbeat Thursday after a reading on regional manufacturing in the Chicago area jumped in September. Economists had expected the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index to fall slightly. That regional manufacturing report bodes well heading into Friday's monthly report on national manufacturing activity from the Institute for Supply Management.

"The jump in Chicago PMI was nothing short of shocking," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global. "It was complemented by the drop in (unemployment) claims."

finance.yahoo.com

We have begun to get a steady dose of mildly good news, and I think it will continue and plausibly even ratchet up. There is still a lot of bearish sentiment out there, but people really want to be bulls. There was an article on a bear a couple of days ago in which he admitted being wrong about Sept, but moved his bearish prediction out to October instead. The bears have sold already, there is plenty of cash on the sidelines still hungry for decent returns, and every time we get good economic numbers, a few more people get converted to bullishness, and put some of that money into the market. At some point, the fear and anxiety about the economy will just fade away, and we will have an explosive melt-up in the market.

Even the semiconductor stocks--believe it or not! In fact, my guess (FWIW) is that semiconductor stocks will lead again at some point with a huge move up. Things are not as bad as they are painted to be, IMHO, there is still steady growth--slow in PC Land, but steady nonetheless. We might have to wait a few months, but it will happen. Q4 visibility won't be very good, so Mr. Market may (emphasize that word) take technology companies down post-earnings on that score, but at some point--perhaps as soon as Nov post-election, perhaps not until Dec, Mr. Market will start discounting a better than currently feared 2011, and will begin going up again. And the SOXX will finally break out of this incredibly frustrating trading range and mid-to high single digit PE, and will scale past 400 again (which, back in June, I thought would happen in July-Aug, just to keep the record straight by mentioning a prediction that was completely wrong).

All JMHO of course.



To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (49235)12/3/2010 8:41:49 AM
From: FJB2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95572
 
U.S. Added 39,000 Jobs in November, Unemployment Rose to 9.8%

By Timothy R. Homan - Dec 3, 2010 7:31 AM CT

bloomberg.com

Employers added fewer jobs than forecast in November and the unemployment rate unexpectedly increased, vindicating the Federal Reserve’s decision to pump more money into the economy to spur growth.

Payrolls increased 39,000, less than the most pessimistic projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a revised 172,000 increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent, the highest since April, while hours worked and earnings stagnated.

More jobs are needed to sustain the holiday-season gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, into the new year. Payrolls aren’t growing fast enough to lower the jobless rate, one reason why Fed policy makers announced a new round of monetary stimulus.

“There is some uncertainty about the outlook,” John Herrmann, a senior fixed-income strategist at State Street Global Markets LLC in Boston, said before the report. Still, “as the recovery gains more traction and business managers become confident about hiring, we think that will ultimately lead to greater job retention.”

Private payrolls that exclude government agencies also gained less than forecast, rising by 50,000 in November. Economists projected a 160,000 gain, the survey showed.

The unemployment rate was forecast to hold at 9.6 percent, according to the median prediction of 83 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Estimates ranged from 9.4 percent to 9.7 percent.

Manufacturers cut jobs for a fourth straight month, payrolls dropped at construction companies and government employment declined.

Economists’ Forecasts

Overall payrolls were forecast to climb by 150,000, according to the survey median, with estimates ranging from 75,000 to 200,000. The October figure was revised up from an initially reported gain of 151,000.

Manufacturing payrolls dropped by 13,000 in November, the most in three months. Economists had projected an increase of 5,000.

Employment at service-providers increased 54,000. The number of temporary workers rose 39,500. Construction companies subtracted 5,000 workers and retailers let go 28,100 workers.

Average hourly earnings were $22.75 in November from $22.74 in the prior month, today’s report showed.

Government payrolls decreased by 11,000. State and local governments reduced employment by 13,000, while the federal government added 2,000 jobs.

New York

New York City, facing a $3.3 billion deficit in next year’s budget, will cut its workforce by more than 10,000 over the next year-and-a-half, Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s budget office said Nov. 18. More than 6,200 workers will be fired, and the remainder of the cuts will be made through attrition, his office said.

The mayor is founder and majority owner of Bloomberg News parent Bloomberg LP.

The average work week for all workers held at 34.3 hours.

The so-called underemployment rate -- which includes part- time workers who’d prefer a full-time position and people who want work but have given up looking -- held at 17 percent.

The report also showed an increase in the number of long- term unemployed Americans. The number of people unemployed for 27 weeks or more increased as a percentage of all jobless, to 41.9 percent, the highest since August.

Economic Growth

One reason why hiring isn’t gaining speed is the economy’s inability to match the recovery’s earlier pace of growth. Gross domestic product expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, half the pace in the last three months of 2009.

It’ll also take time to make up for the loss of more than 8 million jobs, a fallout of the worst recession since the 1930s.

Fed policy makers last month began buying Treasury securities as part of a plan to pump as much as $600 billion more into the financial system in a bid to keep interest rates low and spur growth. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been among those saying the recovery has been too slow, keeping unemployment too high and leading to a deceleration in inflation that raises the risk of deflation, or sustained and damaging price decreases.

In an effort to reach out to some of the nation’s largest employers, President Barack Obama met with Wal-Mart Stores Inc. Chief Executive Officer Mike Duke at the White House on Nov. 29. The meeting is one of a series of sessions aimed at soliciting the views of companies, with the goal of spurring the recovery and adding jobs.