Roger, as I said in a previous message. I was going to delay further
research of CTXS based on some apparently strong fundamentals cited
by Tom. But the ratios are so outrageusly high (p/e: 60+ p/r 20+
notice that I am talking about high ratios not overvalued stock at thispoint in the game.) that I am very tempted to short the stock as a market hedge(IMO it seems to beat the hell oyt of shorting SPY's if
"hell breaks loose" in NASDAQ:
So far I found:
MSFT owns 6.0% of the company (referred to as mayor stockholder in
10Q fillings) source DEF 14/A 4/4/97 A list of mayor stockholders as
of that date:
Microsoft Corporation............... 1,626,266 6.0%
One Microsoft Way Redmond, WA 98052
Putnam Investments, Inc.(2)......... 1,495,500 5.5
One Post Office Square Boston, MA 02109
American Century Companies, 1,900,000 7.0
Inc.(3)............................ Twentieth Century Tower 4500 Main Street
Kansas City, MO 64111
Warburg Pincus Counsellors, 2,616,952 9.7
Inc.(4)............................ 466 Lexington Avenue, 10th Floor
New York, NY 10017
Pilgrim Baxter & Associates 1,403,800 5.2
Ltd.(5)............................ 1255 Drummers Lane, Suite 300
Wayne, PA 19087
Roger W. Roberts(6)................. 331,796 1.2
Edward E. Iacobucci(7).............. 305,217 1.1
Barry J. Dockswell(8)............... 51,278 *
James P. Tarlton(9)................. 180 *
Michael F. Passaro(10).............. 154,484 *
Bruce Chittenden(11)................ 67,668 *
James J. Felcyn, Jr.(12)............ 55,912 *
Mark B. Templeton(13)............... 85,684 *
Kevin R. Compton(14)................ 35,469 *
Stephen M. Dow...................... 21,486 *
Robert N. Goldman(15)............... 33,334 *
Gregory B. Maffei................... 3,600 *
Tyrone F. Pike(16).................. 72,593 *
All executive officers, directors 1,218,701 4.4%
and nominees as a group(17)........
To this you have to add Putnam SC13G/A 7/10/97 3,220,072 11.9%
and our Friends at Fidelity SC13G/A 11/7/97 3,564,700 11.4%
Now this may explain the tremendous price appreciation in this stock. It was a pitty all this AH were betting against you!
Well all these wise guys buying so many shares tells me: We are up
against bunch of geniouses and a tremendous company. Or just
a bunch of idiots that moved the price up to outrageous levels? IMO
the second is the more likely scenario.
I continue my search now into the most recent 10Q filled: In this I
found from the income statement that of the 75MM they received from
Gates so Through 6/30/97 they had recognized ONLY (2.125MM be aware the rest of the revenue was from other lines!):
Net revenues attributable to a stockholder $2,125,000
The balance of the $75 million was recorded into two liabilities (one
current one non-current) that will eventually go to the income
statement as revenue.
From the 6/30/97 Balance sheet:
Deferred revenue:
3,058,319 (this is also a revenue cushion that will be reported in
following quarters but not part of MSFT's payment)
Current-portion of deferred revenues on contract with stockholder:
15,000,000 (this is the portion of the 75MM that will become revenue
within the next 4 quarters)
Deferred revenues on contract with stockholder:
57,875,000
(This is a non-current liability will start becoming revenue one year
from 6/30/97)
So Roger: my take so far is that so far they have not yet recognized
most of the revenue and the possibility to manage revenues in the
next three years give this company an incredible edge in
achieving,and even beating estimates (notice that this what MSFT does to manage earnings)
I will continue tomorrow but so far... Still will not short despite
the outrageuos ratios!
Pancho |
