To: RJA_ who wrote (74012 ) 9/9/2010 1:12:09 PM From: elmatador Respond to of 74559 Emerging market growth may not deliver returns By James Mackintosh Published: September 8 2010 22:41 One common investment fallacy is to think that just because a company or country is growing fast, it is bound to deliver strong returns. The other half of any investment decision has to be valuation; if everyone can see the growth, strong returns will be history. In the case of emerging markets, they are certainly growing fast. But for investors, the question is not whether economies such as China or Brazil have better prospects than Europe or the US. The question is whether this is already priced in. Several measures suggest it may be. Price to book value and price to sales are already higher than in developed markets and the gap has widened since March last year. The trailing price to earnings ratio – how much is paid for a dollar of profit – is catching up to developed markets, but remains slightly behind. Bulls suggest this means emerging markets are cheap; political risk, many suggest, is higher in the west than in Asia or Latin America. Realistically, though, there is zero risk of a military coup in Canada while China is a communist dictatorship. Sure, political risk is lower in the developing world than it was, but still much higher than in developed democracies. This risk discount could be trumped by strong enough earnings growth. Developing economies are surging, which investors hope will feed through into higher profits. Unfortunately, research suggests countries with stronger economic growth do not necessarily produce better returns. Elroy Dimson and colleagues at London Business School found that, since 1900, US shares returned about three times as much each year after inflation as Italian shares, even though Italian gross domestic product per person grew far faster. British equities returned much more than shares from faster-growing economies such as Japan or France. Strong capital flows suggest investors believe emerging market growth will deliver for them. They should be cautious.