Election 2010: Kentucky Senate
Kentucky Senate: Paul (R) 54%, Conway (D) 39%
Wednesday, September 08, 2010 Email to a Friend ShareThis.Advertisement
Republican Rand Paul receives his highest level of support since winning his party’s primary in May in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race.
Paul is now supported by 54% of Likely Voters in Kentucky, when leaners are added, while Democrat Jack Conway earns the vote from 39%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.
In August , Paul held a 51% to 41% lead over Conway when leaners were included. Leaners are those who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but answer a follow-up question and say they are leaning towards a particular candidate. From this point forward, Rasmussen Reports considers results with leaners the primary indicator of the race.
The latest numbers move this race from Leans Republican to Solid Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.
Results before leaners are added show Paul with a 51% to 38% edge over Conway. Those numbers also show improvement for the Republican since August when Paul led 49% to 40% without leaners.
With the exception of a big bounce immediately after his primary win, Paul has received between 46% and 50% support in match-ups with Conway from January through August. During the same period, Conway has earned 34% and 42% of the vote.
Sixty-five percent (65%) of Paul’s supporters are certain already how they will vote this November, as are 66% of those who back Conway.
But while 82% of Republicans support Paul, just 65% of Democrats support their party's candidate. Paul holds a 20-point lead over Conway among voters not affiliated with either major political party.
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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on September 7, 2010 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Like voters nationwide, Kentucky voters put the economy first. Nearly half (48%) say economic issues are most important in determining how they vote, while fiscal and domestic issues tied at a distant second with 13% apiece.
Paul leads 52% to 43% among voters in the state who say the economy is most important to their voting decisions.
Eighty-three percent (83%) in the state say they know someone out of work and looking for a job. Only 11% say the job market is better than it was a year ago, while 51% say it is worse. This is comparable to findings nationally.
Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Texas Congressman Ron Paul, is viewed favorably by 56% and unfavorably by 39%. But while 23% view the Republican Very Favorably, nearly the same number (21%) regard him Very Unfavorably.
Ratings for Conway, the state’s attorney general, are 45% favorable and 48% unfavorable. These numbers include 18% who share a Very Favorable opinion of the Democrat and 16% who view him Very Unfavorably.
Seventy-four percent (74%) of Kentucky voters are at least somewhat angry at the policies of the federal government, which is higher than results found nationally. Sixty-one percent (61%) believe neither party’s political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed most in America today.
For more questions from this survey, see toplines. Full demographic data is available to Platinum Members only.
John McCain carried Kentucky over Obama in the November 2008 elections by a 58% to 41% spread. Thirty-six percent (36%) of Kentucky voters now approve of the job Obama is doing as president, while 64% disapprove, showing no change from last month. These job ratings are lower than those Obama earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.
Rasmussen Reports has recently surveyed Senate races in Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Vermont, Washington, and Wisconsin. |
