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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rainmaker888 who wrote (39240)	9/11/2010 1:08:01 PM
From: richardred	Respond to of 78751

>Investment catalysts >if possible can you all please list the top 3 catalysts in your experience that drive the share price? earnings surprise technical breakout M&A activity Some basics I didn't see on your list. planned stock offering-(Dilution)-not sure if that's your special situation. Insider stock Purchases new product offerings positive accounting issues-RE-tax challenge Outside: Lawsuits-(settlement)(Winning patent challenge ect ect) Institutional ownership accumulation earnings surprise analyst buy recommendation FDA approval share volume increase 13d filing-maybe the same as M@A activity >I am putting together a list of catalysts that can drive a share price upwards. IMO equally important is what catalysts can drive a stock price downward. RE:why to stay away.

To: Rainmaker888 who wrote (39240)	9/14/2010 12:57:08 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78751

Catalysts? If it's a Buffettology investment, it needs no catalysts. Great companies continue great business performance. Eventually the spread between the great business performance and the market price will be enough for market to recognize the disparity. The longer it takes, the more shares I can accumulate. If it's a profitable Graham net-net, either company gets bought (takeover) or the net-cash continues to grow compared to market price. Again, this disparity cannot hold forever. I don't need any other catalysts. :) I don't invest in turnarounds, craparounds or other speculations that need catalysts. :) Comments on yours: 1. New management - how can you evaluate the goodness or badness of management? I never could and I think 99% of the people can't 2. Share buy-backs - it's somewhat OK, but IMHO it's never a deciding factor. Share dilution is bad though. Share buybacks at inflated price are common, bad, but almost unavoidable in Buffettology businesses (KO, PEP, etc.) 3. Spin-offs - this is a special situation investing and should be done as such. Don't invest in a company expecting spin-off, it may never happen. 4. Asset sales - see comment on spin-offs. 5. Change in corporate strategy - see comment on new management. 6. Activist investors - if company needs activist investors, it's an avoid for me. Most of the time. 7. M&A activity - Don't invest in a company expecting M&A, it may never happen. 1. Industry consolidation - see note on M&A. how do you evaluate if this is good/bad? 2. Cyclicality - don't buy cyclicals or have cyclical-specific investment approach.