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To: Mick Mørmøny who wrote (103054)9/15/2010 4:20:50 PM
From: Keith Feral  Respond to of 213173
 
The market never pulled back in March 2010. It was up almost every single day.

January was nasty, and April through August was nasty. I was very encouraged to see the market lift with a strong dollar and weak crude prices today. Ultimately, the low inflation environment is very bullish for equities and very bearish for commodities like crude prices.

When crude prices ramp up with the market, it usually creates some kneejerk sell off. I'm just not seeing any major spikes in commodity prices to get worried about. I'd be much more convinced this 10 year sideways market was going to turn higher if the market continued to rally as crude prices got back down from $75 to $70, $65 or even $55 later this winter.

It's just not reasonable to expect the global economy to function with oil prices anywhere close to $75 or $80.



To: Mick Mørmøny who wrote (103054)9/15/2010 4:47:38 PM
From: Trader J  Respond to of 213173
 
I agree, but I've already got my positions. I'm sitting in long shares but my trading play has been the 2012 $250s and the 2012 $300s. I just doubled up on the 2012 300s when the sky was falling and AAPL was at $238 in late Aug. and all the TA traders were professing the clear downtrend and the inability to buy but as money flow into the stock remained positive. I use them a lot like my personal VIX now. Those last $300s I got were at $23.80 if I recall.

If this rally stalls, I'm probably going to roll out of the $250s and into more $300s, after some of the profit taking takes place. I've actually considered selling some $320 (give or take) Calls or the like as a hedge, but don't think I'm going to.

It's been a nice, steady climb without the run-away volume. We're above resistance now clearly with only a bit at the $275 level or so but I don't see anything posing a significant negative catalyst going into the next two quarters (save one that I won't even mention) that gives me any great level of pause.

My dream scenario is to see a push to $300 or so and see a 4:1 split.