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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Mattyice who wrote (39336)9/18/2010 3:23:25 PM
From: Mattyice  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78764
 
GFRE -

Say if you buy even at current retail price and dont float out a really low bid.

Call or Put (cp) Call
S (asset) 6.9
K (strike) 20
v (volatility 0.91
r (Interest Rate) 0.0019
T (time in years) 1.25
q (Dividend Yield) 0

Value of Option 0.841862706

-------

Option Value (optval) 0.85

Call or Put (cp) Call
Asset Price Today (S) 6.9
Strike Price (K) 20
Risk-Free Rate (r) 0.0019
Number of Time Periods in Years (T) 1.25
Dividend Yield (q) 0
Initial Guess of Volatility (guess) 0.45

Implied Volatility 0.91304655

Say 6 months it is worth - $15 even (and volatility which is really marked up declines).

Call or Put (cp) Call
S (asset) 15
K (strike) 20
v (volatility 0.75
r (Interest Rate) 0.0019
T (time in years) 0.75
q (Dividend Yield) 0

Value of Option 2.374090772

% Change ln(2.37409772/.84186207) = 179%

vs.

owning stock = 130%

I did this pretty quick so some assumptions could be wrong, but maybe if this stock moves lower or you could float out a bid lower than current ask and get a better/lower premium, and also i imagine that this stock if it does finally move will move pretty quick and thus know telling what effect and the multiple action it can have on the option price, but as it moves closer to the money it might become more liquid also possibly raising the value.