more just in in-tray (boyz love to use blackberry and ipad and iphone :0)
player 1: An actual positive news piece for the economy.
Larry Summers Said To Leave White House In Two Months
zerohedge.com
player 2: maybe larry replaces ben-when gold hits 1500?
player 3: I think one of you gurus in this room should volunteer for the job and save the world.
player 4: Gurus don't save the world because the world can never be saved. ...it's always about winning people over one at a time...to the religion of common sense.
player tj: you win people over by grabbing them by the balls, then their mind would follow.
you grab people by the balls by pulverizing everything they have and hold dear, including their paper
or, as mao would say, "A Single Spark Can Start a Prairie Fire"
the straws must light one at a time
onward, to revolution
player 4: Dictatorships don't work either... Timocracy would be best.
Watch film Agora about Alexandria in 400AD. Goes into the role of Chrisitans during decline of Roman Empire.
player 5: we should give capitalist anarchism a whirl....i think that would actually work much better in practice than the detractors say (perhaps in a designated territory where likeminded people decide to congregate?). it won't be possible to attain some mythical state of perfection, but ethical considerations alone suggest that getting rid of an economic actor (the state) who gets his income solely by means of coercion can not be a bad thing. after all, no-one thinks the mafia's protection racket is a good thing (except for the mafia, of course).
the state qua state is almost never questioned anymore - but it should be.
player tj: when are you going to visit freedom hong kong?
we are not entirely in alignment with "capitalist anarchism" but we are the closest game in the known milky way :0)
even our police cry when slapped by the woman plebs youtube.com
can you imagine what would have happened in the empire homeland?
player 5: true, from all available information, Hong Kong ranks most highly on that score.
The Principality of Sealand sealandgov.org may have even higher standards of freedom, but it is a bit desolate, landscape-wise.
player 4: In addition to hotels charging usd9+ for coffee cup -- HK taxis raising fares again ...now at rate of 1x per year. This is getting inflationary over here. 10 pct type of inflation.
player 8: They want to raise the tolls on the Eastern Harbour Tunnel by 40% this year as well.
Rents up roughly 0.8% per month so far this year for residential.... close to 10%
player 5: this may have to do with the currency board being tied to the US dollar. i doubt the Fed's ZIRP is really appropriate for Hong Kong.
player 6: Absolutely xxxxx. The biggest crash in this bubble, when it comes, will come in Hong Kong. As usual, it has let itself get completely caught up in Fantasyland. The HKMA is the most clueless institution on this planet.
player 7: Couldn't agree more, Dr Jim. 500sf boxes now on sale in a gritty part of WanChai, no view, just being put on market for US1.2mn each... Appropriately called The Cube (or 'Chubble')
player 8: Wow. Alternative use for our containers ships. Just anchor of wan chai.
A 40' box , is approx 350 sq ft.
Some even get sea views
In all reality, I would be curious to see leverage of the avg buyer. I suspect many are very underlevered (before or after)
And that most of pressure on hk real estate is coming from real growth in buyers , and risk hedgers (fleeing china, canada, uk wherever).
player tj: guys, hong kong is and has been deflating relative to gold, the one true and only sovereign, should one be biased against lowly silver and denigrate noble platinum.
we cannot take only one portion of what essentially is and must be a paired trade, that be "freedom hk / sovereign gold" and pick at the bad of one while overlooking the gold of the other
it would be akin to taking off one side of a straddled option trade. not entirely cricket.
Bank of china person at baby shower of nephew of the wealthiest man in hk noted that there is a continuing wall of usd hitting hk from n.america and impacting even our precious hard peg.
The force is strong. The refuge is open for biz. The keep is attractive. The game is for keeps.
Perhaps sir maestro al greensputin was right when he figured that hard to see bubble when one is inside of one.
I had heretofore been ok at spotting bubbles far away, survived all after taken advantage of each. So far so lucky.
Hk luxury real estate is slightly higher than peak of good old days of 1997, and general market is lower than when in same days of old.
Affordability better.
Dollar dropped by 50-75/80 % against too many things and services.
Hk bubble shall pop, but we have to bubble first.
Looking back at some point, when that 500 sft still stands and $ down, then we can say, "market knew"
Or perhaps the $ would strengthen. Then we would say, "market was wrong"
I suspect we are not explicitly wagering on the value of everything but implicitly betting on the fate of the empire's money.
player 8: Affordability might be okay, but only because mortgage rates are about 2% - well below the rate of inflation and flat appreciation. You a right that their is a good chance that the bubble will not pop until rates (and real rates) go much higher.
But with rates this low, it does nothing but encourage hoarding. Never, ever a good thing.
How many flats sold today are either lived in or rented out? Maybe 50%? There is no shortage of housing in HK, only a shortage of available housing as so many are simply kept off the market, being neither lived in or rented out.....
This will end ugly.....but is it in 3 months or 3 years? TJ obviously thinks the latter.
player tj: we are also hoarding gold
gold may arguably collapse when hk real estate collapses
gold is useless
hk population can pragmatically trend towards 12+ million, if necessary
one can print money
one can make more space
one can allow in more people
one can charge them higher entry fee (hk discussing hk$ 10 m as investment qualification)
if gold can conceivably go to 6k, than hk real estate can imaginably do another 3x at least
should gold fail to grasp at 6k
the empire of paper will have failed
and should that happen, we convert our gold, 1:1, for yielding hk real estate and double up and average down
so, player 8, chill, shkp must do well
player 9: TJ, How many times must we tell you to buy gold and especially silver?
Now, if you won’t believe us, you must believe Bernanke now. We must inflate…
player 6: Governments and central banks will TRY to inflate. The private sector – in whom I trust – will deflate like crazy. Gold is a buy because central banks are finished, not because inflation is anywhere on the horizon. Deleveraging means deflation, not the reverse.
player tj: Zimbabwe was completely deleveraged before its share market ranked #1 in local currency returns.
We must have faith that the central banks mean to sacrifice all until they give up their mandated fight, unless they first get their charters pulled.
"Do not fight the fed" may be good admonition, for the force remains strong. Tea parties take time to brew, and the flavor and toxicity is not for sure until guests start the dying process. |
