Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The coming US dollar crisis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Giordano Bruno who wrote (30394)	9/26/2010 11:19:44 PM
From: carranza2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71475

I read the GS bit. Unless I am reading the thing incorrectly, which is definitively possible, they base their prediction on something called US-MAP which, when outliers are taking out, seems to have a 50% accuracy rate. Because non-farm employment and ISM figures, which are a part of US-MAP, are likely to be uninspiring, they believe the market will go down. This US-MAP [Macro Data Assessment Platform] thing if I read correctly, is a coin flip in the first place, even if the input is known and it is retroactively tested [shoot, I can do better than that by tracking macro data and using my intuition]. But CR hedges his prediction since he states that markets should go up in anticipation of QE2 in November provided the news flow does not go South. In other words CR and GS agree: if news doesn't suck, markets won't suck. I think that's the takeaway. I just spent 15 minutes re-learning that obvious and valuable lesson. vbg