To: Alighieri who wrote (589067 ) 10/7/2010 4:29:36 PM From: tejek Respond to of 1579131 The ten points are well worth the read.Top 10 Reasons the Democrats Might Do Better In 2010 Than You Think read more............ Of course, every campaign that is down in the polls will say “we’re going to win it with our superior field operation.” And 98% of the time, that’s Two recent polls (the Hill and SEIU/LCV) have Tom Perriello within one point of Rob Hurt, which is a small miracle. Also per the Hill poll, Boccierri is within four, Markey is within three, as is Frank Kratovil (in a district Obama lost by 20 points in 2008). The DCCC is doing triage, and has no doubt written off some races at this point. But given the current climate, their chances look a lot better than they did last November when I put together that chart on “rate of swing” (with the help of Virginia blogger Ben Tribbett of NotLarrySabato). It did not bode well for Democrats at the time, but it was too early to draw any conclusions. Since that time, I’ve been consistently surprised at how sloppy and ineffective the GOP has been at taking advantage of the opportunities those figures clearly presented to them. It’s indisputable that the Democrats will have a tough time this fall. There is just no way you can escape the fact that the party in power is going to take the heat when the country is experiencing 10% unemployment. Higher turnout will help the Democrats, but it won’t save them. However, small margins in key races may make a big difference, and when it comes to the kind of intense ground game we’re going to see in key races over the next few weeks, I’d have to say the incumbent Democrats are better prepared than most of their Republican challengers. And if everything breaks towards the Democrats between now and election day, and control of the House comes down to 2-3 seats, that could provide the margins they need.elections.firedoglake.com