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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Madharry who wrote (39582)	10/7/2010 12:41:23 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78958

Hi Madharry - Re: Noble Group Ltd. (NOBGF) This analyst sees the company fully value based on the current market price. Based on my past year's results, I will continue to hold but will not add to the position at this time. Singapore S$1.97/share is equivalent to U.S. $ 1.51/share. Noble Group (Noble) reaffirmed its commitment to building the business over the medium to long term. Its strategies of connecting low-cost producers to high-growth markets, investing in stable revenue-generating assets and building critical mass in selected commodities remain intact. In addition, the group plans to leverage on its strong balance sheet to capture investment opportunities that may arise. We view value accretive investments positively; however, the group’s ongoing expansion may elevate its operating expenses, and this could weigh on its near term earnings. Despite its 2Q10 earnings falling short of expectations, Noble’s shares have appreciated by 20% since its result release, outperforming the STI’s 6% gain. We are turning cautious on the stock following its recent run-up. In our view, a strong set of 3Q10 earnings is required to justify further share price outperformance. We are keeping our S$1.97 fair value estimate intact. otcmarkets.com ocbcresearch.com Recent rally calls for caution. Despite the below expectation 2Q10 earnings, Noble’s shares have appreciated by 20% since its results release on 12 Aug, outperforming the STI’s 6% gain over the same period. We are turning cautious on the stock at current levels. In our view, a strong set of 3Q10 earnings is required to justify further share price outperformance. Meantime, we see potential headwinds arising from moderating global economic growth as well as uncertain soybean and iron ore markets. We are keeping our projections and S$1.97 fair value estimate intact. In view of the limited upside potential, we are trimming our rating to HOLD. Other Company News Sempra, RBS sell energy unit to Noble Group Ltd. marketwatch.com NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Sempra Energy /quotes/comstock/13!sre/quotes/nls/sre (SRE 53.91, -0.18, -0.33%) and Royal Bank of Scotland /quotes/comstock/13!rbs/quotes/nls/rbs (RBS 15.17, -0.47, -3.03%) said Monday they would sell the Sempra Energy Solutions unit of their RBS-Sempra Commodities joint venture to Noble Group Ltd. in a deal valued at $582 million. The purchase includes $317 million in cash plus the assumption of $265 million in debt. Sempra Energy and RBS said they're in "advanced talks" to sell their Connecticut-based North American wholesale power and natural gas business. Noble Group Ltd. describes itself as a global supply chain manager of agricultural, metals, minerals and ores and energy products, as well as logistics services. ----------------------------------------------------------------------- EKS FWIW - My initial buy was 9/2009 with two other subsequent buys Dec/2009 & Jan/2010. On 6/03/2010 there was a 2:1 stock split w/ an equivalent drop in stock price. A 2% cash dividend was paid 7/2010. My overall gain to date is sub par at 13.7%. 2% dividend and 10% capital gain. I like their business(s), their foreign diversification and their global reach. The analysts fair value estimate of S$1.97/share (U.S. $1.51/share) represents a 10% increase from the average share price I paid in 2009. I do not like the stock split/adjustments but I guess this is the way they raise new capital (along w/ debt). When splits occur, the price seems to over react to the downside.