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To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (282811)	10/12/2010 1:36:13 PM
From: Broken_Clock	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Recession job losses likely to be revised sharply higher Chris Isidore, senior writer, On Tuesday October 12, 2010, 4:46 am EDT As bad as job losses were during the recession, we're about to find out that things were even worse. The government currently estimates that 2.2 million jobs were lost from April of 2009 through March of this year, a significant portion of the 7.8 million jobs lost since the start of 2008. But in a little-noticed note at the bottom of September's jobs report, the Labor Department said it now appears there were 366,000 additional jobs lost during the 12 months that ended in March, a revision that is not yet included in the official numbers. That revision isn't as bad as last year's -- when the Labor Department said that an additional 902,000 jobs were lost. But it is still the second largest downward adjustment in nearly 20 years. The final revision won't be announced until February, but the Labor Department gives a preview in early October of what it is expecting. This year's large revision is a sign of the difficulty the Labor Department has estimating the number of jobs lost and created during the severe economic upheaval of recent years. "Around turning points, the revisions tend to be larger," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute. "At the bottom of the cycle, they tend to underestimate the job losses." The government's closely followed monthly jobs report is based primarily on a survey of employers. But the Labor Department has trouble estimating employees at newly opened businesses, as well as figuring out how many jobs were lost at businesses that close. So it uses a model for that part of the estimate. During the 12-month period that ended in March, that so-called birth-death adjustment added 336,000 jobs to overall total payrolls. The birth death adjustment also resulted in an estimated 682,000 additional jobs in the six months since March, although unlike the widely-reported monthly job readings, that gain is not seasonally adjusted. Still it is significant, accounting for more then 40% of the job gains reported since the spring. "The birth-death model isn't working," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics. "As businesses are having trouble getting credit, it's not surprising."

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (282811)	10/12/2010 1:54:58 PM
From: bentway	Respond to of 306849

My guy came by my house with his father! A good dude, well intentioned, a liberal jewish guy, only electable in Utah in Salt Lake City. He's been around now for a while and actually has accomplished things in the Utah senate, by choosing issues so innocuous that no one cares about opposing them.

To: patron_anejo_por_favor who wrote (282811)	10/12/2010 8:41:56 PM
From: koan	Respond to of 306849

tejek knows I live in alaska and posted this: To: koan who wrote (83672) 10/12/2010 1:05:52 PM From: tejek of 83713 AK-Sen/Gov: Split GOP gives Dems legit pickup opportunity by kos Tue Oct 12, 2010 at 09:46:03 AM PDT Public Policy Polling for Daily Kos. 10/9-10. Likely voters. MoE 2.4% (No trend lines) 1. In the election for US Senate will you vote for Democrat Scott McAdams, Republican Joe Miller, or someone else? Joe Miller (R) 35 Scott McAdams (D) 26 Someone Else 35 2. [For those who said "someone else" in the first question:] Are you planning to vote for nonaffiliated candidate Tim Carter, nonaffiliated candidate Ted Gianoutsos, Libertarian Fredrick Haase, or are you going to write in Lisa Murkowski or are you planning to write in someone else? Lisa Murkowski (R) 95 Other 5 Composite: Joe Miller (R) 35 Lisa Murkowski (R) 33 Scott McAdams (D) 26 Apparently, Alaskans love to answer polls, giving PPP 1,678 responses for a tiny 2.4 percent MoE. That's a massive sample, as far as polling goes, giving us great confidence in these results. Joe Miller is getting 61 percent of Republicans, compared to 31 percent who stick with Murkowski. Independents split 38 percent Murkowski, 29 percent for Miller, and 25 percent for McAdams. But Murkowski is competitive because of the 25 percent of Democrats who plan to write her in. Indeed, 35 percent of Obama voters plan on voting for Murkowski, compared to 58 percent that stick with McAdams. Take that 35 percent who think they're doing something useful propping up Murkowski (and Mitch McConnell, who she has promised to vote for), give those votes to McAdams, and he's suddenly at 39 percent, or in the lead. In other words, the Democrats can win this seat if they come home to their excellent candidate. The challenge for McAdams is to convince Democrats that he is viable in a split race, encouraging those Democrats to come home. For Murkowski, the challenge is to keep those Democrats afraid of wasting their vote while picking up the tiny number of undecideds. And for Miller? He better hope none of the above happens, as his support appears to be maxed out. There is no intensity gap in Alaska. In fact, the sample is eight points more Democratic than the 2008 results. Alaska GOP performance was boosted in 2008 with their half-term governor on the presidential ticket. (We've seen the opposite effect in Illinois, Delaware, and Hawaii, where their native sons boosted Democratic performance, turning into massive intensity gaps this year.) In the governor's race, this may be the first poll all cycle showing this as a single-digit race. Unfortunately for Democrat Ethan Berkowitz, the Republican incumbent is above 50 percent: Sean Parnell (R) 51 Ethan Berkowitz (D) 42 Two more data points -- Freshman Sen. Mark Begich has low job approval ratings -- 39/48. He's actually neutral with independents at 42/43. It's his 12/75 among his state's huge GOP demo that puts him under. The other data point of note is Sarah Palin's terrible favorability rating of 35/57. Among Republicans, it's 59/30. Among Independents it's 29/63. And among Democrats, 8/86. If you're keeping score (and I am), that makes Sarah Palin more unpopular in Alaska than Barack Obama (38/55).