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To: profile_14 who wrote (140973)10/12/2010 6:18:05 PM
From: JimisJim2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 206148
 
profile: that article you linked to should be required reading for all energy investors... impossible to really do DD without considering how reserves are calculated and how real the numbers likely are.

Thx for reposting that link... I may post it once or twice elsewhere when the discussion seems to forget about these points.

Jim



To: profile_14 who wrote (140973)10/13/2010 6:48:42 PM
From: Ed Ajootian  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 206148
 
profile, thanks for your thoughts. I read your comment about off-balance sheet data and read the end of the linked piece several times, and remain unable to understand your comment.

I have read a 22 page Morgan Stanley report on PBR, written a week or so ago, and they didn't mention anything about political issues. Overweight, $45 pt, maybe they blew the call here. If anyone is interested I could upload it.

Even with all the money PBR just raised they still will need massive additional amounts of cash in order to harvest Brazil's massive petroleum resources. In my simple way of thinking, this need for funds ought to act as a practical deterrent to them getting too enthused about resource nationalism, at least for the next few years.

That linked piece had some interesting info about the new reserves rules and also was mildly entertaining, but I can't seem to figure how the knowledge gained from that piece can be used by energy investors. You say it has helped you a lot, and I would be interested to learn how. Do you just ignore all reserves disclosures completely, because they "can't be trusted"?