Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : QUANTUM -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Walton who wrote (4761)	11/10/1997 10:07:00 PM
From: Dale J.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9124

Dave, I am going through the same thing you are. Each day I see my investments erode I think how long can this continue, and what can I do about it. I sound bullish on qntm and I guess I still am confident, but it sure does hurt. And it sure does test my confidence each day. I'm not trying to get you to hold, in fact, if it gets too painful I think I would at least cut back on my holdings. qntm has a lot of potential, but it also carries a lot of risk that is inherent in the dd industry. But at times like this I always try to reevaluate the facts: Asia currency scare: This hurt qntm stock about 15% because of the fear. But since then look at what was revealed by the computer companies. The Reality: IBM has said it is not having an impact on them. cpq has said qtr is on track and it is not having an impact on them. INTC has said they feel some impact, but nothing more than they already felt in the 3rd qtr. INTC conference last Friday: NASDAQ tech stocks fall on fears of pre-announcement by INTC. Several bearish analysts start sounding the alarm. Many started to forecast the demise of INTC. The Reality: That conference was very bullish. INTC said they have never been stronger. Demand is still very strong. While SE Asia has been week, China and India represent a huge and growing market. Europe is strong. Early October Earnings Scare: SEG revealed a miserable qtr. 8 cents/shr. cited competitive pricing pressure. WDC pre-announced and was already in turmoil and cited competitive pricing pressure. The Reality: Qntm announces better than expected earnings. DLT is seeing very strong demand. Its 45% of company profits and its growing at 100%. I know it sounds like DLT hype, but 100% growth on 45% of profits is phenomenal growth. They are just now starting to keep up with demand. Mike Brown cited some concerns of pricing pressure, but said that overall it was a solid qtr. They beat estimates by 2cents. He forecasted a strong 4th qtr. That was just three weeks ago and he was well aware of SEG and WDC earnings shortfall and stiff competition on the low and high end drives. WDC pre-announcement: Qntm gets hammered almost as bad as WDC Reality: We know that WDC had intense pressure on the 2.5gb and under (qntm is not a player) We know that WDC must incur heavy expenses and uncertainty of TFI to MR transition. (qntm already made the transition.) We know WDC is entirely dependent on dd. (qntm is only 55% dependent on dd for earnings) Terastor/NFR: So far we havn't seen this factored into qntm's stock. No products have been announced and no earnings forecast have been projected. Reality: We know it is not vaporware. It was call "revolutionary technology" by DiskCon industry leaders. We know that qntm increased their investment and strengthened their partnership last month (presumably after a milestone had been met). We know that product announcements are due by end of the year (just 8 weeks). I suspect its not hype because they don't say much about it other than they plan to "tap into a significant market", they plan some announcements by year end and plan to ramp up production in the first half of 1998. Dale