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Technology Stocks : Seagate Technology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KC who wrote (4066)	11/10/1997 10:48:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7841

SEAGATE UNDER PRESSURE (From SMARTMONEY) ÿ SHARES of disk-drive maker Seagate Technology (SEG) were down Monday afternoon after IBM (IBM) announced it will launch a personal-computer disk drive that uses a new technique to store up to eight times more information than an average desktop computer can currently store. Seagate traded 8% lower to 24 1/8, setting a new 52-week low on the news. Art Hogan, a technology stock trader at Morgan Stanley & Co., said he felt the selling in the stock Monday was overdone. "This isn't a product IBM will have in production next week," says Hogan. "Who's to say that Seagate doesn't have something just like it on the back burner that they can produce in the same time?" Even so, the IBM announcement is the kind of thing that would tend to rattle investors who have endured several months of unpleasant surprises (earnings or otherwise) from Seagate. As Seagate itself has discovered, it's extremely difficult for any one company to maintain a technological advantage over its competitors for long. That's why the IBM news doesn't change our long-term take on the stock. We picked Seagate as one of our "Where to Invest if You've Missed This Bull Market" back in May. The disk-drive maker is down 47% since we picked the stock because of poor fiscal first-quarter earnings and losses associated with the Asian currency crisis. We've advised sitting tight and waiting for Seagate to regroup; see our story "Seagate's 'Ugly Quarter' May Not Be Its Last." After all, the company still has a hold on most of the lucrative high-end disk-drive market, and the price move makes it look attractive on a valuation basis. The stock is trading at just 16.4 times its 1998 earnings versus 19 times earnings for the group. -- By Gerri Willis

To: KC who wrote (4066)	11/11/1997 11:18:00 AM
From: jas cooper	Respond to of 7841

This certainly is a high price to pay to see the petty bickering disappear from the thread. I can only add a couple of thoughts: Overreaction is easier to identify once it corrects itself. We have seen the results of people dumping money into risky stocks due to "irrational exhuberance" (another term for overreaction). We are now experiencing an overreaction to that overreaction. It may take some time for everything to settle to a new level, and one can't be sure whether it will be higher or lower than here. The other thing is something that Andy Rooney said this Sunday. It went something like "Let me give you some stock market advice. Don't listen to stock market advice." Trying to stay sane in an insane situation. There are more important things in life than money. I wish I had some...

To: KC who wrote (4066)	11/11/1997 2:00:00 PM
From: Larry Brew	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 7841

Ken, << SEG analysis by Gus >> Glad to see your positive response to inputs from Gus. A while back Gus outlined SEG's storage strategy that went beyond disk drives. I've remained confident in SEG due to their heavy capital reinvestment in tomorrow's technology. Gus, if you could repost those foward looking indicies, it may be appreciated by many. I, for one, believe p.c. storage is not far from being segregated from dd's. Servers are a different story. Industry (box makers) are probably not far from storage on zip drives and/or cd's. Micron Electronics has taken the 1st step with it's introduction to a zip 'a' drive offering. Opinion? Larry