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Politics : Politics of Energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (23921)	10/20/2010 2:22:26 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 86355

1 - Recoverable coal reserves would at present rates of consumption last over 100 years. Consumption is growing, but use can continue without continuing to grow. Also recoverable coal reserves are based on what's currently known, and would go up with new discoveries, new technologies and techniques, and with higher prices for coal. The numbers are going down each day Tim. That trend has been happening for many, many years. When surface strip mining runs out with ever lower yielding coal BTU numbers per pound it won't take long before it will just take too much energy to get it out of the ground. And what you get out of the ground in the end won't be worth the effort. That's the "coffin corner" problem with fossil fuels going forward. 2 - If coal really is going to run out around mid-century than your idea of China "winning" doesn't work out so well, since that's mainly what they rely on, and will continue to rely on for some time. China will win because it knows that it has to scale renewables fast, really fast to "win" in the end. The problem with all fossil fuels is that you have to burn them just to get most of them. As the "quality" of fuels continues to decrease we will be burning ever more energy to get that BTU of energy. Again with the attacks on straw men. Well your entitled to your opinions just as I am!

To: TimF who wrote (23921)	10/20/2010 9:26:03 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 86355

1 - Recoverable coal reserves would at present rates of consumption last over 100 years. Consumption is growing, but use can continue without continuing to grow. Also recoverable coal reserves are based on what's currently known, and would go up with new discoveries, new technologies and techniques, and with higher prices for coal. 2 - If coal really is going to run out around mid-century than your idea of China "winning" doesn't work out so well, since that's mainly what they rely on, and will continue to rely on for some time. The problem for China (and this will become critical very soon) is the cost to move the coal China needs to import. Moving it by ship is getting more, and more expensive. Ships don't run on coal. They run on bunker oil or diesel and those costs have risen dramatically in the last decade. If we really are at "peak oil" then the future looks pretty scary very soon for China and other countries that have to import ever more coal via the sea. JMHO