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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Grantcw who wrote (39761)	10/21/2010 12:25:47 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78567

Petrobank Energy From seeking Alpha (10.21.2010) Petrobank Energy: An Exceptional Risk / Reward Opportunity seekingalpha.com From the article:"...The investment thesis is actually pretty simple. There are four parts to Petrobank: 1. 110,000,000 shares (58%) of Petrobakken. Current share price of PBN is $23 which is a market value of $2.5bil. 2. 66,000,000 shares (65%) of Petrominerales. Current market cap of PMG is $1.65bil. 3. A heavy oil business unit that sits within the parent company that has 670 million BOE. 4. Ownership of a potentially game changing oil sands extraction technology that could be worth billions...." <snip> "...I think the opportunity to buy the first 3 parts at 50% of their value is a pretty great opportunity. But the fact that you also get the THAI technology thrown on top of this makes Petrobank the best risk/reward scenario I have ever seen...." ================================================================= Stock thinly traded on the pink sheets (PBEGF). $35.00/share support on the daily chart at 12% below the current price of $39.00/share. EKS

To: Grantcw who wrote (39761)	10/21/2010 12:29:54 PM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78567

Cwillyg, Differently from most people on this thread, I buy E&Ps based on earnings and not reserves. So, possibly, my valuation would be very different from what others think. PBEGF is a bit hard to value anyway because of the complex structure. However, in short it's not a buy for me here. In fact, I would sell it if I did not like its macro picture. It's not cheap IMHO. But then most of E&Ps are not cheap IMHO, e.g. GTE, GPOR, GEOI are all close to my sell prices discarding the macro picture. I think that APA, NXY, TLM are better values, but then all of them are not pure E&Ps and APA/TLM have 50/50% oil/gas split. PBEGF is more oily which is good. NXY maybe? (Super majors E and TOT are still attractive, but this is getting far from PBEGF.)