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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: davesd who wrote (10694)	11/11/1997 11:50:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 70976

Things I don't know: Where the bottom is. If we rebound off the 30 level, we'd have a nice double bottom, and could guess that this is a hard floor. However, I saw the exact same pattern with SEG a few days ago: it bounced off 32 twice, I bought at 36, and the stock promptly had a nasty earnings disappointment and dropped to 24. So much for TA. As a general rule, when AMAT is out of favor, the price is driven to ridiculously low levels. Fundamental analysis will tell you the stock is undervalued, you buy it on that basis, and it drops a further 30% or so. Things I do know: You will outperform almost any other investment if you: start buying AMAT when it has come down 40% from its high, and the analysts have downgraded the stock, and the BTB is declining; and continue buying in increments until the BTB starts going back up; and hold forever, or at least till the stock hits a PE of 40; and don't have a margin call . No matter what the earnings are, if there is any hint of weakness in the backlog or bookings, the stock will continue falling.