Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49851)	10/22/2010 11:56:06 AM
From: robert b furman	1 Recommendation Respond to of 95383

Hi Jacob, It is not hard for me to accept that semi equipment bookings has peaked. What is hard for me to accept is that a trough must necessarily follow. The last trough was very low and very long.I believe it has resulted in an underinvestment in capital equipment. With innovative products like smart phones and tablets JUST beginning to grow to their full potential it makes me think Capex may be in order. Additionally there is new leading edge equipment coming on stream, such as Intel's Sandy bridge - the first of 22nm products PLUS their (Intel's)first entries into smartphone chips and tablet chips. Take a look at the performance chart between sox and smh: stockcharts.com Sox ia price weighted index and I think skews the actual performance of the semi sector SMH shows a much healthier sector. Wondering how your peak cycle analysis fits in with SMH IMO the better index for semi's. Bob P.S. did anyone notice the Intel break out today: screencast.com

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (49851)	11/18/2010 12:39:47 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95383

AMAT now at cycle peak fundamentals: For 4FQ10, compared to previous peak: 42% gross margin; 45% in 1FQ08 2.89B$ sales; 2.56B$ in 3FQ07 $0.35 EPS GAAP; $0.37 in 3FQ07 $9.56B$ sales in FY2010; 9.73B$ in FY2007; 9.56B$ in FY2000 $0.70 EPS GAAP FY2010; $1.20 in 2007 and 2000 investors.appliedmaterials.com valuation: 2.645B$ cash + eq. 2$ cash/share = 2.645B$/1.340B shares $12.38 = stock price now 1.7 = P/S = (12.38 X 1.340)/9.56 18 = PE = 12.38/0.70 $14.69, the January 2010 high, looks like it was the cycle high stock price. Assuming no recession or exogenous shock to the markets, the valuation is low enough now, I don't see any plunge in the stock price in 2011. But I also don't see any sustainable uptrend, either. My guess for AMAT's 2011 stock price range is $9-16. If anyone else wants to risk a guess for the 2011 price range, I'll collect them and repost on 12/31/2011. disclosure: I've been long AMAT since September 2008, at various prices from $17 on down. Sold some recently at $12, will sell heavily at $14, and be out at $16. Moving my portfolio out of semis and semi-equips, into energy and pharm.