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Technology Stocks : AMD ATI INTC NVDA Moderated -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: xun who wrote (58)	11/9/2010 5:07:42 PM
From: xun	Respond to of 95

My takeaways from the AMD analyst conference today: (1) BC Zacate/Ontario is on time and being shipped for revenue. (2) BD, and 32nm process, is finally on track. (3) Lleno is delayed a little bit, will probably miss the next BTS time somewhat. (4) Cayman may be delayed a little bit due to the driver issues. But the rumor on its TSMC yield seems to be false. (5) The Glofo process strategy is going to be half-node step-forward, instead of the traditional AMD/INTC full-node step. In the context of AMD's process advancement history, I think this is a sensible approach. The truth is that nobody outside INTC can consistently do a full-node advancement for every generation. Taken together with INTC and NVDA, I think: (1) INTC continues to enjoy 65+ margin and dominates the high end CPU business. (2) AMD will gain market share in the notebook/netbook/nettop segment(s). AMD may take back some server market share that was lost in the last 3+ years. AMD will hold the GPU leadership position until NVDA presents a more compelling approach. As for the current market, it is consolating around 1220. The current bet is for S&P to flirt with 1300 before the year end. INTC the stock will outperform S&P from now on. For AMD the stock, it continues to be volatile. But my bet is still intact and I now expect it to hit 12.50 in the next 9~12 months. 2011 is shaping up to be an exciting year for both AMD and INTC. We shall see the first round of boxing between monolithic CPU vs Fusion APU vs monolithic GPU in the general computing world. And ARM is also trying to steal the show. Really look forward to this greatest show on earth:^)