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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Douglas V. Fant who wrote (22547)11/11/1997 2:08:00 AM
From: Lee Martin  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
 
To All:
One of the reasons a bought ASND was a press release by UUNET back in July that it was going to offer internet fax service and that ASND was providing the hardware. I remember reading somewhere that over 50% of international traffic carried over phone lines is faxes. The companies that are doing all this faxing over phone lines probably are already connected to the internet, so by adding some ASND equip. they could cut their fax costs to nearly zero. The UUNET press release can be found at uunet.com

The merger with MCI should mean that all of MCI's business customers will be offered the UUFAX service. Shouldn't this merger mean an increase in demand for ASND equip ? As far as I know no other equip provider supports internet faxing. Why would any co. want to pay long distance charges when they can fax for nearly free over the internet? With the new firewalls and encryption features used now, security shouldn't be a problem.

I guess this type of thinking is what got me in trouble by buying ASND in the first place. It seems that all the positive news, partnering, ISP equip. wins, statements that management is confident they will meet future consensus est., huge internet subscriber growth rates etc. HAVE ONLY HAD A NEGATIVE EFFECT ON THE STOCK PRICE. The street doesn't give a damn about positive news. Nor does the street care that the stock is down 73% from its high and making new two year lows daily. Do you see any upgrades based on low current valuation or more positive outlook? Nope.

At what price is the slower projected growth rate (25-40% annual) priced into this stock? I guess from now on if a stock I like hints that growth is slowing and drops 50%, instead of buying, I'm going to stay far away because I've learned here that it's probably going down another 30-40%.

The next earnings report is the middle of Jan. If a buyout is not in the cards, what will happen between now and mid. Jan to turn this stock around ? If we keep going down at the current rate we'll be at zero by the time earnings are released. If they miss est. I guess they go into neg #'s.

Would a stock buy back announcement help or just be a waste of $$ ?
Do we need to call in Al Dunlap to get this co. on its feet and then put it up for sale?
Is there anything that management can do to restore some confidence in this stock?

Sorry for the rambling, it was either that or jump out my window ! Fortunately, I live in a one story house and the windows are a pain to open.

Regards,

Lee