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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: LTK007 who wrote (287342)10/27/2010 6:03:29 PM
From: pstuartbRead Replies (5) | Respond to of 306849
 
Just more proof the retail investor have nothing to do with market direction

Max, I just posted something similar on another board. Somebody asked me what I thought about the chart below, which comes from Barry Ritholtz's site, and I said this:

I think retail investors are gone for this generation. Boomers got burned once on tech stocks, and then many got burned a second time on real estate. Now retirement is looming and they can't afford to take risks anymore even if they wanted to. 401ks are getting raided to pay bills. From here on out for a lot of years, I think the stock market will just be the pros. Just a dwindling number of fund managers with their algorithms and a few isolated traders who've managed to walk through the valley of death and survive.

I've always thought of the consumer sentiment index as a coincident indicator. For a long time it went up and down with the stock market. Stocks up, consumers happy, stocks down, consumers sad.

Now, consumers don't seem to give a rip about the stock market being up. They aren't involved anymore. They're finally trying to save for retirement and they've given up on the stock market. Unemployment is high, and they're worried about their jobs, if they have one, so the consumer sentiment numbers are low.