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To: Michael Rich who wrote (13953)11/11/1997 8:22:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson  Respond to of 50167
 
Hi Mikey

I always enjoy your insightful thoughts...

I was looking at ALL the semis last night...Based on my senario of a retest of the lows in the market and these stocks, there are some very good buys coming up shortly...

While I am cautious here, I love the semis for next year...Mid 98 into 99..Things are NOT that bad right now...yes there will be some fallout from the Asian debacle but not as much as what has been overblown to date..

The media hypes all this junk to extreams, as per usual..I think these stocks are forming double bottoms, with a nice potential move to the upside late Dec...

I looked at them on DW point & figure charts...let the dust settle near term and we should be in a good position to buy and hold for a nice double on a lot of these stocks...

The bond market is really doing quite well right now and should continue to shine, esp if AG stands pat...I think we'll get a nice rally in the bonds after 2:15 on Wed after the FOMC....

All in all Mikey, you did your homework good, thanks for the info...

My Regards to you...still bullish but cautious too, Jer



To: Michael Rich who wrote (13953)11/11/1997 4:52:00 PM
From: Judy  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 50167
 
Good day, Michael

A few words of mumbo jumbo ...

Re: "Stocks above or slightly below 50-day emas: ADBE, AMGN, ASYT, CA, CDG, CIEN, CSCO, CTEC, DD, DO, EMC, GE, GLX, HAL, IMNX, IOM, HAL, LOR, LU, MSFT, NE, NXTL, ORCL, PAIR, PFE, RIG, SYMC, TRV, WLA ... those stocks should be good for a trade in a snap-back rally because I consider they are still technically intact"

If a good bottom is to set, I don't expect to see snap-back rallies. The amplitude of the moves, both up and down, should attentuate as the market moves into a consolidation pattern. 50-day emas are nice metrics but stocks that are topping will bounce off that average once or twice and ooops ... it a ways down to the next major support.

Re: "Stocks around 200emas....I like these stocks best because they give good mid-term returns if picked carefully. Money flow could help a great deal in distinguishing winners and potential DSTs: BAY, CAT, CCI, DD (emas are converging), HWP, NN, TLAB, ORCL (emas are converging), ORFR."

Stocks hovering about their 200-day emas have stories about to unfold or are under a cloud of uncertainty and the market is waiting to hear. To avoid potential DST, accumulation as measured by mf could be an aid but be sure to research the reason why the stocks are hovering at their 200-day mavs in the first place. Mf can turn on a dime.

As for stocks under deep water, tell me about it. We all own some of those. Oh, is ASND so deep-sixed, it didn't even make the under-deep-water list??