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Politics : President Barack Obama -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ChinuSFO who wrote (84384)10/28/2010 4:19:26 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 149317
 
Interesting analysis.......given the media's narrative, I thought the numbers for Dems this year would be as bad as the numbers were for Rs in 2006. As it turns out, not true.

Doomed vs. Not Doomed

by Chris Bowers
Thu Oct 28, 2010 at 12:42:04 PM PDT

In order to take back a majority of seats in the House of Representatives, the party out of power needs to win the national popular vote by around 2.5%.

With that in mind, here’s how the generic congressional ballot polls looked in the final 25 days before the 2006 election (I have found the 25-day simple mean to be the most accurate way to forecast elections). Republicans were doomed:

House 2006: Party in power doomed



Every single generic congressional ballot poll at the end of the 2006 campaign showed Republicans losing the House. The final average of the polls gave Republicans a 0% chance of keeping the House. It was over.

Now, here’s how the generic ballot polls taken in the final 25 days of the 2010 election look:

House 2010: Party in power not doomed



read more.........

dailykos.com



To: ChinuSFO who wrote (84384)10/28/2010 5:40:42 PM
From: tejek  Respond to of 149317
 
Chinu, I have never worried about the teapers long term. Its only with this election. I know they're crazy. What I worry about is the GOP. There are a lot of dangerous characters in the party who you wouldn't call teapers. Some of them post on SI. Their agenda is not beneficial to the US long term and could be dangerous. That's why I am concerned.