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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Angelil who wrote (8980)	11/11/1997 1:14:00 PM
From: GREATMOOD	Respond to of 25960

Steve, As far as I know, John Bollinger is a hell of a nice guy, but has never been brilliant at calling market moves. Other than his very enjoyable tenure at FNN, his claim to fame is that he took a statistical concept called a standard deviation, and plotted lines 2 standard deviations above and below a 20 day moving average of the stock price. Technical indicators are tools that can be interpreted differently by each analyst. At times, prices do tend to continue in the direction of the band break, but only when there is some real potent news story making its rounds. As a general rule, I look at a stock that trades outside it's bands as over-extended, indicating that a return back inside the bands is imminent! (It takes tremendous pressure to keep the price greater than 2 SDs away from the mean for a length of time.) On a semi-positive note, I had dinner this week-end with a Needham trader. I picked his brain as much as I could and he assured me that the worst is over from the Needham point of view. They are no longer selling the s**t out of the stock. The only other things he had to offer about Cymer have been known and discussed on this thread over and over, i.e. no new news. Keep in touch, GM

To: Steven Angelil who wrote (8980)	11/11/1997 1:29:00 PM
From: Mason Barge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25960

A ray of hope for you longs. As you know, I've been out for a while, but I'm keeping close track. You guys keep looking for good news where there isn't any -- you need to keep an open mind. But I'll spare you the lecture. Anyway, the bad news first. Steve, that Bollinger Band shows the technical limitation of the method. Cymer's been riding the bottom band down for a long time. You need to tighten the band a little to get an accurate picture, and if you do, Cymer will still be below the bottom band. I ran all the technicals and, IMVHO, they look terrible. CYMI has downward momentum as of today, with no sign of abatement. The reason -- and the good news -- is that, finally, you guys have a market "conspiracy" or manipulation to complain about (not that anyone is listening). Shorting at 28 or so was a foresighted sell of an overpriced issue. Shorting at 20 is a momentum play. A poster on MF called several big brokers and all of them advised him not to buy, or to sell, based on a bunch of ridiculous semi-fabrications and overstatements of technical problems. My guess is that the big houses have a lot of the short interest and want to ride it for a couple of more points down, so they are discouraging their clients from buying it to keep away any buy-side pressure. The very good news is that when something positive happens (and it may not happen until 16 or even 14) -- like when the momentum turns decidely up, or a big house upgrades CYMI on value -- the stampede to cover the shorts is going to turn the stock price steeply up. It's just a question of trying to pick the bottom. I'm getting back in at 16 and expecting to see 22 to 24 in a few weeks. If I miss it, too bad. But if I see TWO upgrades, I'll buy at market. I'm keeping some cash available and waiting to jump in at this point. I'm sorry you guys who are long have been hurting, it's a great company. Except maybe the guy who called me "stupid" for selling.