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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kevin Stull who wrote (6784)	11/11/1997 10:19:00 PM
From: Jeff Bond	Respond to of 9285

Kevin, You're welcome, it's my pleasure, if I can be of any further assistance, please do not hesitate to let me know. Happy investing, good luck, and may you never lose your shorts :o) Based on your feeling that SMTC "still looks like it is tanking", I would encourage you to take ALL that profit you just made, buy another short positioin at current $47 7/8 level, and hold it through next Monday's earnings release. Use my shares, they're waiting for you at E-Trade. It would be a tragedy though, if I were to have to ask you for them back. But, you are guaranteeing that won't happen, right? Thank you again, I really appreciate your keeping me informed how well you are doing. I hope my cordial manner is more pleasing to your eye. Regards, JB

To: Kevin Stull who wrote (6784)	11/19/1997 1:56:00 AM
From: Jeff Bond	Respond to of 9285

Hi Kevin, I bet you wish you hadn't closed that position, since SMTC fell to the low $41 range almost immeditely after that. You could have made a lot more money, but the risk might have affected your decision. Now, here's how I reacted to the fall. I bought the same number of shares (500) at $43, and closed that position two days later at $51 1/2 (yep, 19.77% return on two days work, if i can call it that). Only regret I have is that similar to you, I probably sold too early, but I'll admit the risk was definately affecting my decision. I'm LONG on SMTC, because as I originally stated, they have great fundamentals, and simply got caught in a downdraft. Here's link to today's Q3 earnings release I suggested would float SMTC back to the top, what do ya think? I'm trying to show my kinder and gentler side, so I humbly suggest you close any short positions you may still have on SMTC. Since it WILL NOT wait for you to act, I am trying to do my good deed for the day and let you know :o) biz.yahoo.com Here's the meat: >>Tuesday November 18, 4:16 pm Eastern Time Company Press Release Semtech Earns 52 Cents Per Share in the Third Quarter Prior to Acquisition Charge NEWBURY PARK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Nov. 18, 1997--Semtech Corp. (Nasdaq/NMS:SMTC - news) Tuesday announced that net sales for its third quarter of fiscal year 1998 were a record $26,533,000, an increase of 44 percent over the net sales of $18,370,000 for the third quarter of fiscal 1997. Net income for the third quarter, before one-time acquisition- related costs, increased 100 percent to $4,198,000, or 52 cents per fully diluted share, compared with $2,096,000, or 29 cents per share, in the prior-year period. << It turns out I was too low, even though I was overly optimistic on almost everything. Repeat, this is not a good short play, any $ you made are attributable to the general market, rather than SMTC itself. Thank you for making me re-visit SMTC, it's what convinced me to get back in at $43. Regards, JB P.S. I seem to have much more luck finding good longs. I'm beginning to think that finding a good short is quite hard to do, even when the general market is cooperating.