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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chainik who wrote (288761)	11/3/2010 7:58:34 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 306849

but I am pretty sure that EW is a total bs :) LOL! It can be... depending on how it's used. But so can be any technical - and for that matter, fundamental - analysis. I am yet to see a significant top in any market that wouldn't be accompanied by a chorus of analysts arguing that prices are fundamentally sound and justified.... :) I'm a little partial towards EW... have been doing it for over 12 years, and have written many 100's of EW-related posts. I do find that markets tend to move in fractals which - often enough - look reminiscent of the EW patterns. Interesting point about possible panic buying of hard assets... could certainly happen. And... I absolutely hate the term "QE". It is true - self imposed censorship can be as stupid and obnoxious as the totalitarian variety. I found this (funny, imo) poem written by some British fellow about "QE": Message 26665987

To: chainik who wrote (288761)	11/28/2010 12:06:28 PM
From: chainik	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 306849

Similar to April, a lot of optimism, a lot of selling by insiders, and very little interest in hedging/puts. OCC retail EPC (<10 contracts) is 0.39, which is silly. Moreover, despite recent market decline, there has been very little movement in sentiment numbers. Folks are afraid to miss a rally. Positive seasonality might trump everything, but my plan is to bet against December rally by shorting financials, at least for the next few weeks. Will be stopped out if faz drops to 10+. A drop to 1130-1150 (SPX) would be a buying opp IMO. Longer-term, same strategy as before. On weakness, add commodities, gold, and emerging markets (VWO and more risky stuff like Vietnam, Russia, Poland, Egypt); park cash in PG/JNJ-like "quality" stocks.