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To: IKM who wrote (622)11/11/1997 11:30:00 AM
From: Rational  Respond to of 29970
 
IKM:

I had felt the same way as you have described about UMG.

About TCOMA: It is very highly leveraged. TCOMA's debt/equity ratio is 2.93 as compared to UMG's .95. Further, the market/book ratio of UMG is much smaller than TCOMA's 26/12.22 versus 23.5/6.95. This is perhaps because, UMG has already laid out most of its back-bone. Even the EBITDA per share of UMG is much higher than that of TCOMA. After some comments: "Analysts doubt Microsoft near U S West cable deal" the momentum has somewhat shifted to TCOMA.

I was also worried about many cable operators' displeasure to give 35% of their revenue to ATHM/TCI for the cable modem/set top box. UMG and TWX are not in the ATHM consortium and hence Bill Gates will likely see his stakes higher with UMG and TWX given that ATHM is aligned with SUN/ORCL/NSCP.

I also feel that UMG is determined and able to deliver the earnings stream to enhance the price further and that it will not seek Bill Gates to its fold. This means Bill Gates wanting UMG will have a greater value for UMG shareholders, IMO.

Sankar