To: Les H who wrote (289339 ) 11/5/2010 2:24:58 PM From: Les H Respond to of 306849 Could the Fed’s QE2 Burst Retirement Plan Bond Bubble? Contributed by Michael Hirsh on Nov. 5 On day three after the Qe2 announcement by Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke, many investors are watching the DOW joyfully move up. Others are creeping up behind retirees and saying, “Sell Bonds now, the bubble is about to pop”. This has been Warren Buffett’s song for awhile. He is joined by other economists and financial advisors such as Jeremy Grantham of Grantham Mayo Van Otterloo (GMO), Marc Faber of Marc Faber Ltd., Pacific Investment Management’s (PIMCO) Bill Gross, and Columbia Professor, Joseph Stiglitz. The nay saying contrarian view is that retirees are about to have their pocket’s picked. Stiglitz is on record as saying of QE1 that the authors of the plan to rescue the banks were, “either in the pocket of the banks or they’re incompetent.” His view is that the Fed believes the interest rate to be the key player in stimulating the economy. Stiglitz believes not enough room is left at the bottom for the lowering of the interest rate to inspire investors, banks or businesses to make any positive changes. It won’t cause the banks to turn loose of the money to cash starved small businesses who are the only ones positioned to hire, expand and sell. About the effect on mortgage rates, he sees it as just moving the money from the elderly who are holding the long term bonds to the mortgage borrowers. And as far as believing that it will drive inflation up Stiglitz is quoted as saying, “all the evidence is that as government spending went up during the last two years, interest rates didn’t go up, and are not likely to go up now.” These economists believe that defined benefit pension funds in the US and the UK will suffer from QE2. Bond yields will go down and the draw on the bond funds will increase more than assets coming in. The euphoria of the temporary gains broadly across the markets will cause retiree investors or their plans to look toward riskier asset classes and begin to drain bond fund prices. The term used for this is ‘flight to risk’. Do we here the air going out of the bond bubble and the gasp of fixed income retirees as it does? Analysts have estimated that more quantitative easing will bring stress for public-pension plans. James Hacking, administrator of the $6.1 billion Arizona Public Safety Personnel Retirement System, has written that many such funds like his have not yet absorbed the full impact of 2008 and 2009 losses. He wrote in an email, “Since liabilities have continued to escalate, our funding ratios are expected to decline even as contribution requirements for employers continue to rise,” Mr. Hacking also referred to the effects of pay cuts, furlough days and the elimination of jobs as reducing the contribution base to these retirement plans. The name given to the gap between the out flow to pensioners and the income from contributors is underfunding. It becomes a cash flow problem for these retirement plans that can only be met by adjusting the outgo or the income. Cedric Scholtes, an investments analyst for Fischer Francis Trees & Watts Inc.is quoted as saying “We are at an inflection point,.. You could leave a lot of money on the table by burying your head in the sand and sticking to [a strict] asset allocation.” The bottom line seems to be that even if the QE2 stimulates the economy and growth ensues, the flight to risk will still be bad news for pensioners. And if a double dip recession occurs due to the failure of QE2 to stimulate the economy and the US goes on a Japan like 20 year recession, it will still be bad news for pensioners. Can I get an amen for hunker down and pray?personalfinancebulletin.com