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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: randy kay who wrote (13972)	11/11/1997 11:55:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 50167

Hi Randy--re the ratio of postings As I posted previously, the lows in April '97 and the summer of 96 also saw signs of capitulation by the posters on the usually bullish threads--that has not happened yet though there are indications of some shift in sentiment. Obviously, given that the above is based on just two significant market lows it cannot be viewed as conclusive precedent--but something to keep in mind. The interesting thing about the peak in the market in the August time period, is that with the exception of th die-hard Kahunites, we saw capitulation by some of the bears who said that they had decided to go long. My scenario --for what it is worth-- is that if we don't see a good bottom in place with the right sentiment numbers, we will still see a strong year-end rally, from an over-sold condition--probably after Thanksgiving-- that will fail and then the sell-off will resume in early 1998 and provide the basis for a resumption of the bull market some time in 1998. If on the other hand we achieve the necessary change in sentiment over the next few weeks--without too much technical damage--we'll have a bottom in place for a new leg in early 1998. Needless to say this is nothing more than conjecture, but that is how I am playing this market in terms of establishing new long or short postions.

To: randy kay who wrote (13972)	11/11/1997 12:12:00 PM
From: Dave.S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 50167

Randy I've noticed that alot of the participants from the Kahuna thread have moved over to the "The Market Taught Me That..." (started by Mohan on Nov. 3, 1997) and the "Ask Mohan about the Market" threads. Your ratio maybe should include these as well. What is your Nortel "leading indicator" telling you here? Dave

To: randy kay who wrote (13972)	11/11/1997 1:19:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Randy- Sox battering has a very bad impact on an individual investor- the frequency has fallen considerably although our regular firiends are watching at the moment it is one of those wait and see knd of attitude- posting needs a little positive mood and when we you see your profits evaporate you have very ackward feeling- I don't think short of aggressive S&P options anyone could maintain some kind of hedge - I was looking at one of bears favorite instrument it was 815 when S&P was 925 level a couple of week back today the quote was 796- the pros who were short has been losing money- too many question marks were raised when I talked of that spectre but the fact remains anyone interested in a short fund can get bearx cheaper today from its highs of 896 it is trading at 796 -what kind of shorts do they have in the fund where even a short fund has betted on wrong stocks. I was looking at SOX premiums people who are interested to buy some puts should look at Nov SOX call premiums at 910 nearly 12 $- this is not a sign of bear market- news are pouring in that we may see some strike on Iraq - may be a drop 150 points on that - but I know one thing the way slow and steady HSI closed above 10000 last night and Sony type stocks battered at 81 will not loose attention far too long- once Nekkei takes out the 'pshycological barrier' of 16000 we may see a very quick move in the market- one can be short of this market at his own peril- the only break downs I see -if Japan sell some US paper that if Nekkei sells below 15000- HSI does not hold on to its gains above 10000- Russian and Brazilian stock markets show renwed selling- Iraq surprises the world with news of nuclear detterent! the economy and numbers are all telling me that we are finding a suport here and until we have two closes below 910 we need not to worry about a bear market- It is understandable that 'Idea' have maintained the volume and traffic during difficult times thanks Judy OJ and others but they are a far more experienced hands- they have lived thru down cycles and have been able to withstand these pressures very nicely- why not to identify some good stocks if we see market and SOX rebounding to 320- yesterday INTC rumours were all discounted by the market today- INTC MSFT IBM alll these companies are going thru there buy backs- this is a severe correction with in a perfect bull trend which can only be called as over if Transportation Drugs Oils start slippping below 20 days average. Techs are great investments they are more volatile then rest of the market- I have been here before and will be here again but markets is to revitalise ones spirit in face of adversity and look positively at the situation- if you are too worried you can always buy an insurance S&P 850 for Dec one contract will provide you with all the cover you need in the world- 250000$ woth trading at 15$- it will cost you 3750$ for protection from now until 19th but this is far better then SPY and Bearx where no one makes any money for me Klic WDC Tencor Amat Asnd Coms remain attractively valued at these levels- sorry for being a bull- we are kind of out of fashion this week but it is not late but when it will come the traffic on bear thread will be ow and ouch only- at the moment - we try to sell some puts and rack in some commisions- some day we may be caught wrong footed but mark my words 'earnings disappointments are a mirage and strong economies inevitably will deliver strong profits'- I am extremely sorru for being so positive but that's the way it is and that's the way it will turn out to be- in a months time we will be looking forward to absolutely different analyst's projections.