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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pezz who wrote (67864)	11/7/2010 6:46:02 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217588

Hello pezz, today's plan: Am at boutique hotel in Manila, convenient, discreet, comfortable, friendly, and even homey. Am with my Aussie buddies of 22 years, since my days in Manila and nights on boracay island. Have my fishing / photographer / reporter vest on. Meaning I am ready for anything short of full battle. For full battle I need my Miguel Caballero bullet, knife n flame-proof jacket - the very same worn by Chavez, Obama and Putin miguelcaballerousa.com Have iPad and blackberry bold, and am backed up by iPhone. (1) shall do ocular inspection of another boutique hotel, one of lower ranking than where staying now, haggle with hotel management group, sign some papers at the lawyer's place, go to open bank accounts for operations and capital, and close on purchase of 47-rooms hotel, and try to do well for the fellowship where I am one of three leads. 6 other boyz joined us in the fellowship of oasis palm to partake in the promises and share the thrills. Two of the boyz are also directors in my hk so-far adventure grouping, the fellowship of gold citadel. (2) should we be successful, as in the 37% yield tracks true, we intend to do more such deals as stand-alone ventures, and once enough, aggregate, rollup, together with the hotel management group, and exit stage right via share market, or leave by stage left, private sales. (3) we have initiated negotiations with resort on boracay island, intending to drag out the chit chat until mid-year 2011, to give time to oasis palm to track true, so as to engage with more boyz with imperatives to engage with true emerging market bargains. (4) I see the time now is 7:25am. By read of blackberry I am informed that my orders to buy n hold more of RHM.ax and BSR.ax and to hold new RUM.ax at respective aud 0.41, 0.25, and 0.15 respectively have been filled. Haven't the vaguest idea what any of the micro caps do, but enough should do 10-100x that the rest do not matter. Yes, you detect correctly, that it is once more happy time for hotsie totsie Aussie shares. Cheers, tj P.s. The ambiance in Manila is just right, where I am, cheery music, hearty breakfast, wifi / 3G, iPad, blackberry, wheels n deals. Fisherman jacket n dark sunglasses, n boyz amongst girls. All very cool. Cannot wait for when jack can join dada in adventure. The bernanke fix is in, and qe3, 4, 5 are 'give me' trades.

To: pezz who wrote (67864)	11/9/2010 7:30:50 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 217588

hello pezz, today's report: bought ltbh stake in ext.ax finance.yahoo.com at aud 8.5x per share. it should become a key uranium miner for this planet. cheers, tj p.s. background fyi Subject: Charlie's morning thoughts.. Uranium, glowing..Extract Resources (EXT); big scale, big grade, big upside Good morning, Southern Cross Equities is probably most well known for backing Fortescue Metals Group (FMG) from a very early stage. Today FMG is now the biggest listed independent pure play iron ore producer in the world, with a market cap of $22bil. It’s largest shareholder, Andrew Forrest, is now Australia’s richest individual. True believers in FMG have been well rewarded. We often look back and consider what we “got right” regarding FMG and what the market “got wrong”. What the market “got wrong” in its early assessment of FMG was the scale of the resource and management experience. They also played the man rather than the asset. Nowadays, post the FMG success, we get very, very interested when we see BIG scale resources with experienced (former big company) management teams in place. Add in high grades that should lead to a place in the bottom quartile of the global production cost curve, and we get extremely interested. Of course we have to like the outlook for the underlying commodity and then we have all the boxes ticked. Obviously we have reiterated in these notes over the last few months our very bullish view on uranium. It is blatantly clear that the developing world is losing its irrational fear of nuclear power. The Chinese will embrace nuclear power in their new 5 year plan (this was clear in all our recent meetings in China), and we wouldn’t be surprised to see China construct around 400 new nuclear power stations by 2020. This has massive ramifications for the uranium price, where weapons grade uranium from the former USSR is drying up, China is building a strategic uranium reserve, while the first ETF over uranium is expected to be launched soon in New York. ERA’s structural production issues have only highlighted the tightness in the uranium. While the uranium spot price is edging north, the real action has been in the Canadian listed uranium stocks who have rallied very sharply. This is because there is market speculation that uranium major Areva is signing long-term contracts with the Chinese at $80lb, well above the current spot price of $57lb. The chart below reminds you that uranium has traded up to $140lb this decade, while $40lb remains a very clear base level for the spot price. U308/lb In recent notes we have recommended Paladin (PDN) and Extract (EXT) as our pure play Australian listed exposures to this very bullish uranium theme. Both stocks have done well, driven by their Canadian dual-listings. Today we want to focus on Extract where we believe investor knowledge is low due to low research coverage. This has the potential to be a very big and very strategic company and below we are going to explain why we think that is the case. We recently met with Jonathan Leslie the CEO of EXT. Jonathan is used to run Rio Tinto’s Rossing uranium mine which is next door to EXT`s Husab mine (previously known as Rossing South). He was a Board director of Rio Tinto PLC for 9 years until 2003 (i.e the glory years at RIO) and is clearly a well connected uranium industry executive. He knows Namibia well from having lived there in his Rossing role in the early 1990`s. At full production of 15m lb of uranium Extract`s main asset will be the second largest uranium mine in the world, the resource base continues to grow and the shareholding base is very interesting with names like Rio Tinto on the EXT register. We don’t believe it’s well understood by the market that Husab (aka Rossing South) has the potential to be the 2nd largest uranium mine in the world in terms of annual production, which would make EXT a top 5 global uranium producer in total. Extract`s Husab mine would be the world`s second largest at full production The chart below compares EXT potential scale and grade versus other Namibian uranium deposits. The Asset The main asset of Extract`s is clearly the Husab uranium deposit which used to be called Rossing South but is now called Husab to avoid confusion with Rio`s neighbouring huge Rossing uranium mine. One of the early attractions of FMG was it had “great neighbours” in BHP and RIO. EXT also has “great neighbours”. There is no doubt there is significant upside in terms of drilling out their resource over coming years. Clearly this resource could even more enormous than it currently is there and there is plenty of upside as EXT explore new zones as there is clearly mineralization all around the area for them and their main zones at the moment are all open at depth and extend along strike. Clearly the DFS has been moved back to the first quarter of 2011 but that is not a negative. We think this resource base is turning out to be so large EXT just want to work out the optimum mine plan for this asset and whether that be mining Zone 2 (higher grade) first. The 2009 study had capital costs of around US$700m plus or minus 40% but that didn’t include multiple other associated costs like infrastructure. So clearly the number to bring on this project is going to be a lot higher than $700m but that isn’t a negative, far from it, it’s just what it costs to bring on Tier 1 world scale projects no matter what the underlying commodity is. We would forecast capital costs above $1bil to get into production by 2014/15. That capital will be a mix of project finance and new equity, yet with EXT’s existing register we see no issue raising that required new equity through time. In terms of funding EXT have around $50m cash right now, at some stage they will need some cash but in our view EXT have multiple different funding options available over time, be it uranium industry end customers, to strategic Chinese investors. To put it simply, we don’t see financing as an issue. EXT are also clearly very aware of the fact that they need to sort out the various Namibian infrastructure requirements and they seem very confident about the water and power needs. The power in particular seems a non issue and the water is slightly harder as they will need a desalinisation plant but that will be built in partnership with some fellow uranium players but that will all clearly be part of the DFS early 2011. The Structure of the asset UK listed Kalahari Minerals currently owns around 41% of Extract and in our view the longer term deal that clearly makes sense is merging Kalahari and Extract in a zero premium deal as we think it would simplify the structure of this Husab asset. There is also clearly overlap between the share registers of Kalahari and Extract makes a deal between the two make sense. The current major holders of Kalahari and Extract are listed below –note the overlap of Rio and Itochu the Japanese firm. Extract Major Holders Itochu 14.9% Kalahari Minerals 41% Rio Tinto 12.5% Rio Tinto 14.6% APAC Resources 12.12% Itochu 12.9% Uranium Market We think even Jonathan Leslie has been surprised by the strength in the spot price of late but as he said that’s what happens when a few major producers have production issues in a tight market. He made the good point that the market does not seem to understand the geopolitical component of the uranium industry and its this that makes the industry structure so interesting. We think this geopolitical overlay is why valuing uranium stocks just on an NPV basis is missing the point. We think the other point the market is missing is how tight the longer term supply side in uranium looks and 2014-15 when Husab should be kicking off production should be a nice sweet spot in terms of pricing. You now have many people like the Koreans, Russians and Japanese offering to build entire nuclear reactors from the ground up and also delivering the uranium into those projects which you clearly need. But at the moments guys like the Koreans don’t speak for a lot of uranium production around the place and you have seen the Russians getting involved in M&A last week via Berkeley Resources. In terms of valuation EXT is undervalued versus existing producers. While this chart is published by EXT we agree with its basic assumptions, remembering we also think EXT’s resource base is going to expand aggressively over the next few years making the stock look even cheaper on these EV per resource lb of U308 comparisons. Remember, corporate predators will also look at EXT in this way. The final slide in EXT’s presentation is an excellent one, and one we again agree with. It summarises the investment case very succinctly. Of course many investors reading this note on EXT for the first time will think “I’ve missed it”. Sure, the stock has done well in recent times but at around $2bil market cap with the potential to be one of the world’s major uranium producers into a tightening and rising uranium market this stock has very significant upside over the medium-term. The is a big scale asset with very high grades in an existing uranium province. Namibia is about as stable as it gets in Africa, while we also have a proven management team in place that will take this project to production. We also think the company has a variety of project financing alternatives, which in itself is a function of proven management and the quality and scale of the asset. EXT will become a world leader in pure play uranium. We would be surprised if it remained an independent company because tier 1 assets eventually find their way to their natural owner. In this case that means a global resource major. However, in the interim and over the next 4 years as EXT heads towards first production there is every chance this stock will double. On that basis we would be accumulating EXT shares under $9.00 and holding on for what should prove a rewarding ride. This is a “new world” idea that ticks all the boxes. EXT is 1.36% of the Small Ordinaries Index and only .17% of the ASX200. Go Australia

To: pezz who wrote (67864)	11/10/2010 12:23:06 AM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217588

hello pezz, today's report: sold paper platinum at usd 167/oz or 11% gain. they were bought here Message 26720305 on july 30th at its more usual price. i stand ready to buy back at the more usual price, and could be within days if i am fortunate. cheers, tj

To: pezz who wrote (67864)	11/10/2010 5:12:41 AM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 217588

hello pezz, reminder, that one of my buy-n-forget aussie hotsie totsie is now recognized at higher value than at 11/7/2007 buy-in of 3.65, to current mark to mark of 9 Message 24035782 <<Purchased 3 tranches of KAROON GAS finance.yahoo.com at AUD 3.65 per share, in attempt to get in on, squeeze on through, jump on, pile in, and camp on what could potentially be the next Woodside Petroleum, as its GAS feeds the billion stoves in China, and perhaps jump the queue on the China Sovereign Fund in its attempt in turn to deflect the USD that is piling up and wasting away.>> it turns out that the buddy who traditionally gave me guidance regarding all aussie hotsie totsie (including lumacom) was right again, but rather disappointing because unlike lumacom, the rightful returns did not happen w/i 12 months. cheers, tj

To: pezz who wrote (67864)	11/19/2010 8:42:27 AM
From: TobagoJack	1 Recommendation Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 217588

hello pezz, today's report: i bought back the tranches of platinum i sold here Message 26950994 at hkd 12,957 or 4% discount to my earlier sales price do not want to take a chance on missing traditional year-end rally and usual january-march ramp let us see if platinum continues to drop against palladium as large moolah players keeps at shorting pt and longing pd reminder to self, that which is sold today must be bought back tomorrow i stand ready to 10x my already enormous position on any dip back to 15x0s/oz. cheers, tj