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Politics : Just the Facts, Ma'am: A Compendium of Liberal Fiction -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Sully- who wrote (82293)11/9/2010 9:41:49 AM
From: Sully-1 Recommendation  Respond to of 90947
 
This just about sums up the GOP “mandate”

By: J.P. Freire
Associate Commentary Editor
11/08/10 12:55 PM EST

Be careful what you wish for.



From Michael Ramirez

Read more at the Washington Examiner: washingtonexaminer.com



To: Sully- who wrote (82293)11/11/2010 6:39:46 AM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 90947
 
Fed Counts on 'Psychological Bump' With Borrowing, but May Just Add to Debt, Inflation

By Sharon Kehnemui
FoxNews.com
Published November 09, 2010

Investors beware: The Federal Reserve may have just agreed to make $600 billion more available for borrowing, but don't expect to see that money flooding the market any time soon.

At least that's the warning from some financial experts who say the Federal Reserve's pledge to buy $600 billion in Treasury bonds is unlikely to help improve inflation or interest rates, which are at historically low levels, but it will add to the U.S. debt.

The Fed is "looking for a psychological bump to get (Americans) out of the doldrums they're in," said Michael Canet, head of Prostatis Financial Advisors Group and host of the "Savvy Investor" radio show out of Baltimore, Md.

"Unemployment is still 9.5 percent ... manufacturing is still at 70 percent capacity," he noted.

Canet is among a slew of economists, politicians and financial planners who say the Fed's use of monetary policy to push the economy forward could have the opposite effect of what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke intends.

"We already have very loose monetary policy, very, very low interest rates. This is going to give us an inflation problem in the future. It's going to give us an interest rate problem in the future. It is destabilizing investment horizons," Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., the next House Budget Committee chairman, said on "Fox News Sunday."

The Federal Reserve's plan, called "quantitative easing"
by policy wonks, is an effort to make more money available so that banks will lend more and people will feel freer to spend. Three years ago, the Federal Reserve did a similar trick, purchasing $300 billion in Treasury bonds to make credit more accessible.

That was at the start of the recession. The economy has started to grow since then, which to many means Fed policy should be looking at ways to wipe debt from the books, not take more on.

"I didn't argue with the first quantitative easing but the economy is growing for 16 months now," said Alan Reynolds, a senior fellow at the libertarian Cato Institute and member of Ronald Reagan's transition team at the Office of Management and Budget.

Reynolds noted that "3.1 percent real growth in the past year is about half what it ought to be but it's not nothing." He argued that with growth, people expect inflation to rise so the Fed doesn't need to "throw fuel on the fire."

But with interest rates nearly zero and banks still tight-fisted with the cash they have available to lend, the Fed announced last week that it will buy an additional $600 billion in Treasury bonds in the next eight months.

"Currently, the unemployment rate is elevated, and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low, relative to levels that the (Federal Open Market) Committee judges to be consistent, over the longer run, with its dual mandate," the central bank announced in a statement last week.

"To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation, over time, is at levels consistent with its mandate, the committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities," it said.

President Obama -- traveling in India on Monday -- praised the move.

"The Fed's mandate, my mandate, is to grow our economy. And that's not just good for the United States, that's good for the world as a whole," he said, adding that the Federal Reserve is an independent agency from his administration.

"The United States has been an engine for growth, for trade, for opportunity for decades now. ... And the worst thing that could happen to the world economy, not ours -- not just ours, but the entire world's economy -- is if we end up being stuck with no growth or very limited growth. And I think that's the Fed's concern, and that's my concern as well," he said.

Canet told FoxNews.com that the Federal Reserve is trying to flood money into the market in an effort to push down interest rates and encourage borrowing. For instance, he said, if mortgage rates do down from 3.5 percent to 2.5 percent, it ideally would spur home purchases. The action conceivably would also drive down the value of the dollar and make U.S. products more desirable and affordable overseas.

But the problem with the plan, Canet warned, is that there aren't enough remaining buyers in the housing market who were just holding off to wait out interest rates. Likewise, the middle class globally isn't large enough to close the trade imbalance that is adding to U.S. indebtedness.

"I don't know if it's going to play out that way," Canet said of the Fed's intentions. "I think they're wrong but that's what they're hoping for."

He added that the other problem with the plan is that banks aren't lending the money the Federal Reserve is trying to make available.

"The banks make their bottom line look better, their stock prices go up ... the fact that it's all smoke and mirrors is irrelevant," Canet said.

Former Republican vice presidential contender Sarah Palin argued that inflation rates are already on the rise, which Americans can feel when they go grocery shopping. That being the case, the Federal Reserve doesn't need to make more money available for spending.

"Pump priming would push them even higher," she said of inflation rates, using the slang for government-sponsored stimulus.


Reynolds predicted that the positive impact of the move will be "temporary at best," and he likened it to the government's "cash for clunkers" program that offered incentives for people buying new, high gas mileage cars. Auto purchases rose during the length of the program, but quickly dropped again once the rebate offer ended.

"The Fed can print money but it can't print jobs," he said.

Canet and Reynolds did offer some practical advice. They agreed that it's unwise for investors to put all their eggs in one basket -- and the adage that the older one gets, the more liquid one's assets should be is dead.

"Bernanke is really messing with those people" who live by that rule, Reynolds said.

Canet said the bond market still can make sense for people who want to save, but consumers probably want to look at individual bonds and not invest in mutual funds with a basket of bonds unless it is short-term.

He said he is on a wait-and-see approach to bonds to give time to "let the QE2 shake itself out."

As for the stock market, it has had a good year.

"Lots of people say the stock market has gone up because of Bernanke. I don't buy that.

... It's hard to square that circle," Reynolds said.

"The approach you need today is how do I create an income stream that I'm not going to outlive," Canet said

.



To: Sully- who wrote (82293)11/11/2010 7:15:59 AM
From: Sully-  Respond to of 90947
 
Is the Fed's Debt-Buying Unconstitutional?

By Elizabeth MacDonald
FOXBusiness
Published November 09, 2010

Is the Federal Reserve violating the U.S. Constitution’s separation of powers with its new purchases of $600 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries? Is the Fed engaging in an unconstitutional monetization of the U.S. Congress' out of control spending spree that is really a bridge loan to fiscal insanity?

At minimum, should the Fed be avoiding these purchases until the fiscally debauched U.S. Congress, packed to the ceiling with fiscal dipsomaniacs, follows Great Britain’s lead in its fiscal abstinence that may "out Thatcher" even Margaret Thatcher, as a top Dallas Fed official says?

Isn’t the problem fiscal incontinence and regulatory misfeasance, and business uncertainty about all of that, which is creating joblessness? Not a lack of liquidity and not deflation, which is not a clear and present danger, as instead inflation is still with us?

And isn’t the Fed dangerously habituating the stock, bond and commodities markets to a “new normal” of constant quantitative easing?

Open Revolt

Germany, China, Russia and Brazil are attacking the Fed’s move.
President Barack Obama is now defending the Fed in his overseas trip to India. Former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin demanded that the Fed "cease and desist" on its bond purchases. Wall Street experts are now starting to call the Fed's moves an end run around the legislature.

And even Fed chairman Bernanke has criticized such extracurricular activity on the part of central banks in the past.

Watching closely in the wings are the Congressmen who want a full-fledged audit of the Fed, including Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas), who said he will push to examine the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions if he takes control of the Congressional subcommittee that oversees the central bank, as expected, in January.

Last week, the Federal Reserve announced it plans to buy more U.S. Treasury notes and bonds at a massive clip, $600 billion, between now and the end of June in a bid to spur economic demand, lower the jobless rate and resuscitate a still fragile U.S. economy.

Already, from December 2008 through this past March, the Federal Reserve bought about $1.6 trillion of government debt and mortgage-backed securities to stem the economy’s free fall.


Federal Reserve Act Sanctions Such Purchases

Although Article I of the Constitution specifically gives Congress the power to "borrow," "coin" and "regulate" money, a little understood section of the Federal Reserve Act, section 14(b)(1), does let the Fed buy Treasuries in the open market — and under the Act the central bank can buy foreign debt, too. But that act, put in place in the early part of the 20th century, was meant for smaller bore purchases to help the government build bridges and roads--not the massive intervention planned now. Fed historians fear the central bank is now pushing the envelope of the Federal Reserve Act. For more on the section, click here.


Why the Fed Intervention?

The banks say there is still a lack of demand, at the consumer and business levels. Banks are being criticized for not lending more, even though the Fed has kept interest rates at nearly zero, and even though they hold more than $1 trillion in excess reserves. Loans as a percentage of assets are declining, notes the Dallas Federal Reserve, although it sees a pickup in bank corporate lending.

The central bank hopes to lower the 10-year note even more, helping homeowners teetering on the brink to refinance their mortgages and businesses to obtain cheaper credit.


The Heart of the Problem

The problem is, businesses say they face hyper-taxation and hyper-regulation at the federal, state and local, and that is what is helping to create joblessness. Fed officials agree.


“The remedy for what ails the economy is, in my view, in the hands of the fiscal and regulatory authorities, not the Fed," said Richard Fisher, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas in a speech to members of the Association of Financial Professional that was critical of the central bank’s debt purchases.

Uncertainty rightfully abounds in the business community because businesses do not know what else will pop up in the health and financial reform bills that many in Congress have not read that could hurt their businesses.

The problem is the Fed is buying much of next year’s fiscal deficit spending at a time when fiscal austerity is nowhere to be found in Congress. The problem is the Fed won’t stop buying Treasuries unless the government fixes a jobless rate stuck at 9.6%, the goals of “maximum employment” being part of the Fed’s mandate.

The problem is this vicious circle: the Fed’s dollar printing could undo the government’s stimulus deficit spending because it will cause the dollar to drop and it will trigger inflation, as already food and gas prices have risen, hurting the U.S. consumer.


The danger is monetary policy acts with a lag. “I liken it to a good single malt whiskey or perhaps truly great tequila: It takes time before you feel its full effect,” says the Dallas Federal Reserve’s Fisher.

So the Fed’s moves could take effect when the economy is already healing — igniting inflation, which the U.S. already sees in food and energy prices.

But What Else is Going On?


Illiquid bank balance sheets.

Could the Fed simply be printing money to plug banks’ damaged balance sheets? The way it works is, the Fed buys bonds and notes off of the banks, who then get an uptick in in their reserve accounts.

Perhaps those funds can then be used to help the banks refill the potholes on their balance sheet that they [say are] wide open with impenetrably foolish bets. Bank balance sheets still face sizable writedowns from the shadow inventory of foreclosed homes, borrowers in negative equity, credit card debt, and commercial real estate problems--as well as trillions of dollars in omni-directional derivatives that could go south.

One of the world’s top bankers, Bank of England Governor Mervyn King told an Economist Magazine Buttonwood conference recently that liquid assets held by the banks are now just a microscopic 2% to 3% of their total assets, which is down from 33% of their assets in decades past.

So that means if just 2% of the banks’ money is “at risk” and goes belly up, then the banks can become insolvent. King added that "small movements in asset valuations are enough to render banks insolvent" and that "banks are much riskier than commonly believed as an investment." Many are already zombie banks.

On top of that, banks are still overexposed in a scary way to derivatives.
According to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the notional value of derivatives held by U.S. commercial banks is around $223.4 trillion. The nation’s top five banks account for 95% of this.

While much of that sum is offset with hedges, most of the derivatives are tied to interest rates. Maybe all of this is why Bernanke is fighting to keep rates low to avoid another massive TARP injection.

Plus, the banks will need the reserves since government regulators are demanding more in the way of capital reserve cushions to back their books of business, known as the international accords called the Basel regime.


The Markets Cheer

The stock markets have cheered the Fed's purchases. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 12% higher as the dollar has dropped about 10% versus the euro since Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke first hinted at more purchases in his Jackson Hole, Wyoming speech last August.

Investors have seen an estimated $1.4 trillion in paper gains in their portfolios since then, the wealth effect Bernanke had hoped for to revive consumer confidence and spending.

However, market watchers now fear a trifecta of bubbles is forming in stocks, bonds and commodities — and foreign governments, notably in Asia, are hollering that this flood of money is ending up on their shores creating bubbles there, too.

Already, as the dollar drops, oil is trading at two-year highs, and gold has hit a nominal high of $1,400, still off its inflation adjusted high of $2,314 reached in 1980.


“Right now, the world is faced with the unprecedented consequence of demand-pull inflationary forces fueled by the voracious consumption of oil, wheat, corn, iron ore, steel and copper, and all other kinds of commodities and inputs, including labor, among the three billion new participants in the global economy,” says Fisher.

But instead of what former Fed chairman William McChesney Martin once famously said -- that the job of a good central banker is to take away the punchbowl just as the party gets going -- Bernanke is spiking the bowl even more.


Fed’s Scary Exit Strategy

And another gargantuan problem looming is the Fed’s exit strategy out of its dollar printing, which involves selling those exact same Treasuries it is buying to remove the excess liquidity the central bank is creating.

All of those bonds seeking a finite pool of investors could cause a bond market crack up, because higher yields would have to be offered to lure investors in.

The Fed’s exit strategy could cause bond yields and borrowing rates to spike way higher.


Controversy Stretches Back Decades

Since the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 created the Fed, scholars have argued the Fed itself as an entity is unconstitutional.
Texas Republican Rep. Ron Paul and his newly elected son Rand have made similar arguments.

FOX Business' top legal analyst, Judge Andrew Napolitano, notes that “the Supreme Court has never ruled on the constitutionality of the Federal Reserve, believe it or not. But the lower federal courts that have addressed the issue have found it to be constitutional by employing the argument that Congress can enter into a contract with private entities to perform governmental services; and that is what it has done with the private bankers who own and operate and profit greatly from the Fed.”

Fox Business news director Ray Hennessey notes that in 1952, Rep. John Wright Patman of Texas, who was head of what was then called the House Committee on Banking and Currency, crystallized the argument, saying, “In the United States we have, in effect, two governments. We have the duly constituted Government. Then we have an independent, uncontrolled and uncoordinated government in the Federal Reserve System, operating the money powers which are reserved to Congress by the Constitution."

The U.S. central bank grudgingly bought U.S. debt during the Great Depression under pressure from Congress to battle deflation—a playbook Bernanke is following now.

Between 1926 and 1929, the Fed bought $1.7 billion in US debt, but then ramped that up from $729 million to $1.8 billion in 1933, averaging $2.4 billion in purchases every year after that until 1941.

While these moves helped lower interest costs corporate debt “and appeared to arrest the decline in prices and economic activity,” Bernanke said. “Fed officials remained ambivalent about their policy of monetary expansion. Some viewed the Depression as the necessary purging of financial excesses built up during the 1920s..slowing the economic collapse by easing monetary policy only delayed the inevitable adjustment.”

The Fed also bought U.S. debt in the 1940s to keep interest rates low after World War II, a move some economists say helped usher in the post-war economic boom.

And back in the 1970s, it was Congress that pressured the Fed into adding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac securities to its portfolio in order to help develop the market for those mortgage-backed securities. That was unpopular with the Fed at the time too.


Bernanke Uncomfortable

Fed chairman Bernanke himself said he was nervous about such extracurricular moves by any central bank in a 1999 speech, where he discussed the Bank of Japan’s monetary easing to help fix the country’s banking collapse that led to its lost decade of the ‘90s, now two decades running.

Bernanke said that if the BOJ outright bought nonperforming bank loans, such purchases would be “correctly viewed as an end run around the authority of the legislature, and so are better left in the realm of theoretical curiosities.”

But the Fed effectively did make such a monetary gift to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac when it bought its rotten mortgage-backed securities, notes John Hussman of Hussman Funds.

Hussman says: “It is doubtful that when Congress drafted the Federal Reserve Act to allow the use of mortgage-backed securities, it ever dreamed that the Fed would purchase these securities outright when the issuer was insolvent. Until this issue is clarified in legislation, Bernanke will continue to see it as “perfectly sensible” for the Fed to make ‘money financed gifts’ that substitute his own personal discretion for those of a democracy.”

Quantitative easing simply lets the Fed to not just buy Treasuries, but also other assets that may not be allowed by the Constitution, Hussman says.

“Creating government liabilities to acquire goods and assets, unless those assets are other government liabilities, is fiscal policy, pure and simple” and “that fiscal authority is enumerated by the Constitution as the sole right of Congress,” Hussman notes.

And “nowhere in the Federal Reserve Act did Congress provide authority for the Fed to create subsidiary corporate entities as it did with the Maiden Lane vehicles,” to take on rotten assets from Bear Stearns and AIG, says Chad Emerson of the William & Mary Business Law Review. “The Fed cannot simply establish off-the-books shadow companies to avoid its restrictions under the Act. The legislative power of Congress cannot be circumvented by merely creating a LLC.”

When Bernanke Acted


Bernanke first raised the idea of purchasing Treasuries in a Dec. 1, 2008 speech, which the Federal Open Market Committee later reaffirmed in a statement on Jan. 28, 2009. But when the Bank of England later that year succeeded in dropping long-term rates by buying U.K. gilts, that’s when the Fed took notice. The 10-year gilt yield slid to the lowest level in at least 20 years after the BOE’s purchases began.

But Great Britain became abstemious with its deficit spending. The U.S. has not.

.