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To: Yaacov who wrote (13073)	11/11/1997 3:44:00 PM
From: TechnoWiz	Respond to of 27012

Hi Yaacov: Absolutely, coud'nt have said it better myself. This is nothing more than a type of mass hysteria phase that has gripped the markets, that will pass just as surely as Winter is followed by Spring. The smart investor is out there scouting for undervalued jewels that have been caught in the carnage esp in Asia. Asia is in a transition. The new Hong Kong administrator is a self made billionare in his own right and he knows that the HK real estate mkt was out of control and they were going to institute measures to make housing more affordable. The integration of Hong Kong with China is an economic marriage made in heaven. Right now it is in transition, but eventually the entire map of China will be peppered with Hong Kong clones all over. Beijing is really very progressive behind its so called c veil. World's fastest growing economy this decade and will continue to grow with entrepreneurship, investment and management expertise input from HK. Even Pres Jiang Zemen stated in his communique following recent state visit to US, that China is in transition to a democratic state in 21st Century. Imo they are trying to put the past behind them and get on with the Future. Just look at 21st century model city and 1st of the HK clones: Shenzen. I was there in the 80's and it was mainly farmland back then. There is a lot of face and pride at stake in regds to HK, they don't want to mess up because they want to prove to the World that they can do as well or better than the Brits and they want to impress Taiwan enough to be able to eventually put the welcome mat out there as well. China's economy is leapfrogging its way to the head of the line. No-one can say for sure how long this transition will take, but HK has a history of bouncing back stronger than ever following each crisis and Mexico has surprised everyone by how quickly it recovered. Brazil is a powerhouse and is the USA style economic engine of Latin America. 350 of LatinAm's top 500 Coy's are Brazilian. The Mercosur agreement has been doubling trade evry 18 months since inception and hopefully a Nafta for the entire hemisphere will eventually do the same. As for Europe, after borders were opened and more integration, there was a period of transition which I believe is ending and the strength and dimension of Europe's eventual recovery will probably surprise us all. I think little by little it is following in the footsteps of Good King Wenceslas (US Economy) and that trade will increase exponentially between the new major trading regions of the World. Rgds Wiz I very mucwith your

To: Yaacov who wrote (13073)	11/12/1997 2:47:00 AM
From: Barry Grossman	Respond to of 27012

Yaacov - "we can look to another five years of grouth" I agree that the possiblity of growth continuing is probable. I also agree that the turmoil caused by the Asian problems has been overdone. This bull market has been going on for so long now that those who say it can't continue are now getting more attention than they deserve. They have created a climate of fear among some that has kept them out of the market. There are those, though, that recognize that the pervasive strength of the US ecomomy will continue because business conditions have never been as good for non-inflationary growth as they are now - Michael Metz and Barton Biggs and the other pessimists to the contrary. What do I look for that might upset the apple cart? Among other things, I look for government meddling in the form of new laws that might inhibit growth. For example, I believe that had the Clinton healthcare package passed several years ago, I feel that it would have dragged the economy into a slow growth phase which might easily have led to a recession. But that didn't happen. After the heathcare fiasco, I think he managed to avoid any other shakeups of the status quo and, consequently, market forces have prevailed and we are where we are today. In those past periods of economic slowdowns that I personally remember, I know we would have loved to have the kind of economy we have today. We ought to appreciate it more and worry about it less. More people are working than ever and earning more than ever - the current deficit is almost down to zero - inflation is virtually non-existant - oil is apparantly abundant world-wide - the cold war with Russia is over - the Chinese market is open to the west (Remember when Nixon and Kissinger first opened it up in the early 70's? - new technology is rapidly improving worldwide productivity - and on and on and on. My advice would be to continue to stay invested in equities for the long term, pick up bargains on these evidently unavoidable dips, and keep a wary eye out for large scale negative exogenous changes that might occur. BTW, bonds are nice but I like CSCO better. Regards, Barry