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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: ggersh who wrote (291261)11/13/2010 6:01:00 PM
From: posthumousoneRead Replies (1) | Respond to of 306849
 
<<The Financial Times "Eurozone in talks on Ireland bail out" reports that European ministers are currently deliberating whether Ireland needs a bailout before the markets open on Monday. The FT notes that the "the discussions ... are expected to intensify on Sunday".

>>

This out send the markets soaring Monday



To: ggersh who wrote (291261)11/14/2010 10:41:32 AM
From: PerspectiveRead Replies (3) | Respond to of 306849
 
Munis: has anyone found anything more about the huge selloff in munis last week? I see it in every single muni chart I look at. And while it *is* merely a retracement of gains, this kind of selloff only seems to have one precedent that I can find in the past ten years, and that would be the mid-September 2008 selloff that was prelude to the October 2008 liquidity "event."

The thing that makes it most impressive to me is that nobody seems to be making anything of it. No "news" reports discussing why it happened, no explanations. Those are the kinds of moves that I eye with interest. A major shift like that without any news probably means one of two things:

1. Somebody huge is exiting a massive position to move elsewhere.
2. Somebody huge has just learned some news and is rushing to take advantage of insider information. We will find out what they know weeks later.
3. Somebody huge has decided they can create a new trend by bashing something vulnerable, kind of like releasing the latch on a Jack-in-the-box. They know the spring is coiled, so they quietly prepare for the uncoiling, then they hit the latch.

It may just be #1, but I doubt they would do it in such dramatic fashion unless they were trying to start something.

It may just be October. There was a similar selloff Oct. 2009, but not as steep.

(I hate this crap. Don't know why I'm even bothering to look at it anymore. For two years, you would go broke trying to position against a trend that is totally 180 degrees out of sync with reality and fundamentals (municipal bonds hitting ATH while municipalities are in f***ing collapse) and then everything unwinds in two weeks. F**k bubbles. Hate 'em.)

`BC