To: TobagoJack who wrote (68128 ) 11/14/2010 3:13:10 AM From: elmatador Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 218005 Anyone wanting to know just how daft and self defeating the EU’s latest utterences (SIC) on the Permanent Crisis Resolution Mechanism (the structure through which sovereign bailouts would be conducted) really are, should take a look at the note just published by Marco Annunziata, chief economist at UniCredit Group. I’ve got no link for this, so I’ll quote his digest in full: “The Eurozone’s credibility deficit is getting larger by the day. The most recent antics on the Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism are a breath-taking mixture of suicidal irresponsibility and farcical incoherence, and risk inflicting lasting damage to the recovery prospects of the most troubled peripheral countries and to the credibility of the eurozone’s economic governance framework. “Germany had seemed determined to have agreement on a SDRM. But now from Soul, EU finance ministers tell us that that any SDRM would only apply to new debt issued after the mechanism has been approved and put in place, that is 2013 at the earliest. Debt currently outstanding, and any debt issued over at least the next two years, would therefore be safe. But this commitment is time-inconsistent, and therefore not fully credible. If by 2013 countries like Greece, Ireland and Portugal are still in a shaky position, with weak fiscal accounts and weak growth, any new debt issued with SDRM clauses will carry exorbitant yields, inconsistent with debt sustainability. “The EU would then have to choose between a full-fledged, open-ended bailout, and reneging on the promise that existing debt would not be restructured. Will German voters then accept higher taxes to save their profligate neighbors? Perhaps, but we can hardly take it for granted. The apparent time inconsistency of the Seoul promise implies that we might get the worst of both worlds: spreads will not come in significantly, as investors will doubt that existing debt is really safe, while high-debt countries will still hope that they will be helped and not left to the cruel mercy of the markets. We will get instability and bailouts rather than discipline.” But as Mr Annunziata points out, unless countries such as Ireland, Greece, and Portugal, have by then got their finances back in order, which doesn’t seem likely, the yields demanded on new debt will be so high as to require a restructuring of existing debt anyway. Either that, or the rest of the eurozone would have to give an open ended guarantee. This crisis is set to run and run. P.S. Some understandable confusion of terminology is setting in here. The European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF) mentioned by the finance ministers is the existing €750bn fund set up last May to help countries with difficulty repaying their debts. The Permanent Crisis Resolution Mechanism (PCRM) is what they propose should replace it in 2013. I’m assuming that Mr Annunziata’s Sovereign Debt Restructuring Mechanism is the same thing. All clear now?blogs.telegraph.co.uk