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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (68283)	11/17/2010 9:55:32 AM
From: elmatador	Respond to of 218074

Ajay Kapur : Ten Provocative Observations (and more on plutocrats?) The Investigator : Ten Provocative Observations The anomalies out there 1. Emerging markets are severely underinvested in developed market stocks, but overinvested in their bonds. ELMAT: SWF were created to change that. Developed markets are at appropriately hedged exposures to emerging market stocks. 2. QE2 exacerbates income/wealth inequality across the world, pumps the wealth of plutonomists, the asset-rich and old, but taxes the urban poor, asset-short and young. ELMAT: As newly printed USD find its ways to emerging markets they becomes assets, which enable economic activity to pick up. See 6. 3. The Demi-Ashton Ratio (the ratios of those in their 40s to 20s) - the key(only?) reason to buy emerging/Asian markets for the next two decades. Not "superior" growth, return on capital or other presentation-material propaganda. ELMAT: and he says to sell agriculture commodities? 4. With global excess returns on capital at record levels, is a capex boom coming? ELMAT: A soon as the market see clearly that we have a OECD financial crisis clouding the bright outlood out there... 5. Corporate Asia is at record lows in leverage. Going forward, De-equitization as opposed to more de-leveraging? 6. Emerging/Asian stock markets a stock-picker's paradise, the US a macro-market with only opportunistic stock-picking potential. Globally, occasional stock-picking regimes favor junk and those with individual stock stories. ELMAT: Yes this USD will always find a way... 7. Japanese stock valuations are close to levels discounting the Lehman crisis. A successful Bernanke targeting of US inflation-expectations could unlock value in Japan. 8. India's consumption ratio is falling, despite the mother of all bull markets in gold and property. Why are Indian consumer stock valuations at record highs? 9. Agriculture stocks are great long-term stories. However, sentiment on agriculture commodities is too high. Sell these stocks. ELMAT: Hold food. Hold energy, Add fertilizers. 10. China is "over-monetized" and "over-banked" compared with its per capita GDP. Its bank market capitalization is too large versus its economy. Low bank multiplies reflect this gargantuan starting point, and are probable value traps. ELMAT: China is Hogging. See inflation. "China has been effectively printing renminbi to buy $1 billion a day worth of dollars to keep the renminbi weak and give its exporters an advantage in markets overseas."