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Non-Tech : Alternative energy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9356)	11/17/2010 9:51:04 PM
From: Eric	Respond to of 16955

Hi Jacob, If your interested in the Credit Suisse Solar Snippet that came out this morning I can fire it off to you. It was pretty detailed and I could only post a fraction of it here this morning. Eric P.S. Gutsy move on the solars... I'm staying away until next spring when I think the fog will clear a little bit more.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9356)	11/17/2010 11:36:49 PM
From: Sam	Respond to of 16955

Jacob, you might be right in thinking that the banks will own LDK eventually, but they seem to be a "shining star" in China, and have gotten some timely loans in the past as well as being able to sell some of their polysilicon stake. In the meantime, poly prices have rebounded quite nicely: Item High Low Average AvgChg AvgChg% PolySilicon 90.00 75.00 80.000 8 11.11% Unit: US$ / Kg Last Update: 2010-11-17 pvinsights.com Although I admit have not been following the PV stocks very closely for about a year now, I am just beginning to follow them again. I would think that higher poly prices will help LDK quite a bit, since they have their own supply now, and this will help keep them out of trouble for at least the time being, as they make their effort to diversify downstream on the PV chain. Which isn't to say that they might not be a short right now, all the PV stocks got hit today, but I'm not so sure that you should hold that short very long. These things have been turning on a dime, as you've noted, and while it doesn't really make sense since oil and PV don't compete with each other, if oil prices rise again, they could easily reverse and go up. But as we know (much to my chagrin at times) the stock market isn't particularly "rational" at any given time. One of my favorite quotes on that (even though it isn't precisely so in the long run): [P]rofessional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view.

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9356)	11/19/2010 12:13:57 AM
From: Doren	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 16955

Jacob, are you buying to trade, speculate or hold long term?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (9356)	11/19/2010 1:43:08 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 16955

YGE 3FQ10 results: ir.yinglisolar.com 33% gross margin (compared to FSLR's 40%, TSL's 32% and STP's 16% for latest reported quarter) 491M$ rev. 0.44$ EPS GAAP 13.8M$ interest expense 517M$ total cash, about 1B$ in debt (unrestricted cash is unknown, since they don't separate restricted and unrestricted cash) (short-term debt is the largest of the various categories of debt) PE = 11.10/(0.44 X 4) = 6.3 (I am annualizing this quarter's earnings, an optimistic assumption)) "As of today, we have entered into sales contracts under which a total of 721 MW of PV modules are expected to be delivered in 2011, and this figure is expected to increase to 1,000 MW by the end of this year. "... ...increase our nameplate capacity to 1.7 GW in late 2011... ...Our PANDA cell conversion efficiency has achieved 18.5% on the commercial production lines and we expect to increase the figure to 20% towards 2012. Currently, we have achieved a new record cell efficiency of 19.5% on PANDA trial production lines... ...raises its PV module shipment target to the estimated range of 1,020 MW to 1,040 MW from the previous estimated range of 950 MW to 1,000 MW for fiscal year 2010, which represents an increase of 94.2% to 98.0% compared to fiscal year 2009. The net revenue for full year 2010 is estimated to be in the range of US$1,780 million to US$1,810 million... ...further raises its gross margin target to the estimated range of 32.0% to 32.5% from the recently raised estimated range of 31% to 32% for fiscal year 2010... my comments: I'm considering making 30% gross margins a requirement for a longterm solar holding. In 2011, maintaining 100% capacity utilization will be crucial, and YGE's contract total is impressive. Steady progress in increasing efficiency. Red flags: debt, short-term debt, no statement of unrestricted cash. YGE's balance sheet is worse than TSL's, which in turn is much worse than FSLR's. TSL reports Nov. 30