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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (47348)	11/19/2010 12:41:17 PM
From: TimF	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 71588

and predict 300% to 500% increase in constant dollar terms by 2045... if that would help? That would not normally qualify as "orders of magnitude". Its not even one order. I suppose you could say its half an order. (A idea/term which some people reject, some consider to be an increase of 10^.5 or about 3.16, near the lower end of your projection, and some consider to be 10/2 or 5, the upper end of your range.) I wouldn't be shocked to see an increase on that level. OTOH I wouldn't be shocked to see prices near today's in real dollar terms either. (25x or .1x, would be a huge surprise, but other than extremes like that I think the price could be just about anywhere.) "Orders of magnitude" (from today's price levels) probably not until nearer the end of this century though. (That's 'long-term' enough for me....) If you only mean 10x I could see it as possible. Real "orders of magnitude" increase, 100x, 1000x, etc. seem doubtful (and if such an increase does occur it will probably be because no one is seeking such fuels on a large scale any more, since we have mostly already moved on to something else, and the niche uses are expensive luxuries).