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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Spekulatius who wrote (40159)	11/19/2010 12:34:30 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	Respond to of 78954

Although a lot of megabrand companies look pretty cheap, such events like GM IPO seems to indicate a bubble in stock prices. I completely agree with you - who in their right mind would buy stock in GM? Did all their competitors go out of business? Did they just invent dilithium reactor for interstellar travel? Curious minds want to know. JNJ, KO, MSFT are still 10 times better investments. Even if someone does not want to look for small caps.

To: Spekulatius who wrote (40159)	11/19/2010 10:38:46 AM
From: JakeStraw	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78954

Personally I wouldn't touch GM stock. Give them 5 years and they'll be crying poor once again...

To: Spekulatius who wrote (40159)	11/19/2010 11:32:17 AM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78954

Hi Spek General Motors Company Common S (NYSE: GM) - I wonder if you are going to see any significant shorting after the 30 day lock out period expires? What do you think of Ford Motor Co. (F) at current levels? I sold a few shares in the $12.00 range earlier this year but continue to hold the majority of my shares. During the melt down, I owned both F and GM. I sold the last of my GM on 12/2008 at $4.35 and rolled the proceeds into F. I think I would have been better off to avoid all the auto makers at that time but it appeared that Ford seemed to be the value play. Based on the economy, GM car models vs competitors, I would be tempted to short GM above $40.00/share rather than buy. I consider F a hold and am waiting for them to eventually reinstate their dividend. EKS

To: Spekulatius who wrote (40159)	11/23/2010 10:37:40 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78954

re ML.PA (Michelin). I have been looking for a while for stocks with "hidden" emerging market exposure. Some folks actually state that GM's emerging market subsidies may be worth more than the current GM market cap. That got me looking into adjacent business and one of them is tires. GT looks overleveraged and has a huge underfunded pension liability (the underfunding is higher than it's current market cap). it is somewhat cheap if you regard it as an "option" like play. But I like ML.PA better. It has the better balance sheet, and almost twice the operating margin of GT (~9% versus GT ~5%). 33% of their business are in emerging markets and they recently did a right offering to get some more capital - as they state for organic growth in emerging markets. The rights offering is about ~1.6B$ and they want to invest 1.5B$ in the next few years in China plys they have investments in India and other countries. Tires is a capital intense business and is has a very cyclical nature (due sales to the car industry) but the growth story may be under appreciated here. Lot's of information in Michelin's shareholder website: michelin.com Current PE is around 10 with a pretty large spread in estimates.