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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (6817)	11/11/1997 4:38:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

BB: >>As far as I can go back in history the stocks of the brokerages were better than their mutual funds in a bull market and made better shorts than the S&P in a bear.<< This is a cool finding. I learn something new everyday at SI!. Pancho

To: Bonnie Bear who wrote (6817)	11/11/1997 5:02:00 PM
From: vegetarian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Interesting observation on how brokerages perform in a bear. The only hitch I see is: would people be not trading a lot in the initial phase of a bear market in trying to get out of their equities? I would imagine the activity to be quite hectic at the beginning of the bear and if we assume that the brokerages make a significant portion of their money on commissions and spreads the early part of the bear should not be logically bad for brokerages. one could argue that in the latter part, after the initial rush is over, the investors would be less willing to trade and the brokerage houses would not be doing so good and their earnings will take a hit and make good shorts then.