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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: vegetarian who wrote (6823)	11/11/1997 5:51:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

The real risk in shorting brokerages is one of industry consolidation. I held BQR long and it soared when it was announced that it was being acquired by a bank. I note that it has been dropping below its acquisition price the last couple of days, which tells me Fleet's prospects may be tarnished.

To: vegetarian who wrote (6823)	11/11/1997 7:45:00 PM
From: Pancho Villa	Respond to of 9285

MC: >>the problem here is not all the analysts agree that we are in a confirmed bear market << IMO over 90% of analysts are followers (i.e., take action after the fact) I would not put my trust on this. I agree with you. Outfits that mainly do brokerage/investment banking like ML may not see their earnings affected as much as mutual fund houses which charge commissions based on assets under custody. If the people pull the money out of mutual funds their "easy" commissions will suffer (easy because most of them charge you a fixed fee regardless of performance). Notice that Bonnie was talking about TRWO and BEN, both mutual fund concerns, and then Shwabb which is a hibrid. Pancho