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Strategies & Market Trends : 2026 TeoTwawKi ... 2032 Darkest Interregnum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kingfisher who wrote (68638)	11/24/2010 5:55:25 PM
From: TobagoJack	Respond to of 217912

just in in-tray, per gavkal Subject: GaveKal Dragonomics China real estate review - Social housing explained While some talk about a housing bubble in China, the government takes a different view. Its analysis is that while there may be speculative excess in the upper end of the housing market, there is actually a shortage at the lower end. The housing policy that has emerged over the past year thus has two components: restrictions on demand for high end housing (which were tightened further in September), and a massive increase in supply of low end housing. The latter will be achieved through the "social housing" program, which has been much talked about but little understood. This quarter our real estate and construction review, which complements our recent China Insight note "Flats for the masses" (Nov 18), focuses on social housing. In our view, while the program still faces many problems, it is flexible and intelligently designed. More broadly, we anticipate that growth in construction volume will slow substantially in 2011. Floor space under construction will grow by 25% this year, well above the long-term average rate, and about double what we believe is the sustainable growth rate for the next two or three years. The slowdown in construction volume is consistent with a secular slowdown in sales, which have grown at a compound annual rate of just 5% since 2007.