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Non-Tech : Amati investors -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael who wrote (28587)	11/11/1997 6:53:00 PM
From: Scott Patrick Adams	Respond to of 31386

I guess that also implies that you see Westell at $11.41 - If you are right I hope it happens tomarrow so I can load up big time. Its time to play some Quake for a few days. :) SA

To: michael who wrote (28587)	11/11/1997 7:03:00 PM
From: SteveG	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 31386

<any comments > Amati is a story stock that has traded on hope, hype and perception. If some kind of contract noise is made, the stock COULD rise - no matter how financially unsubstantial (for instance, GTE is looking at probably 100K lines. This translates to adding approx .20 / share to WSTL/AMTX in the year it is deployed). Technically, if it can't hold above 14, support seems to be around 12 to 12 1/2. It has currently broken well below it's 50 day, and would need to hold it's 200 day which is around 13 1/4. If it DOES break down, 12 1/2 to 14 could become significant resistance as it has in the past. But the real question is fundamentals. Aside from hype found here, the likely delays in contracts and deployment will probably haunt this stock. Bells are just not as interested in jumping in to make the significant $$ committment to a technology which will have widely varying (and not reasonably testable) line specs. And as cable moves in with HFC (which also offers phone and cable revenues) and cable modems, telcos will find it difficult to compete on either performance or price. Then there are the radio wireless CLECs which provide both voice and bandwidth solutions (WCII, ARTT and soon to trade TGNT). Competition may well spur the Bells to faster deployment, but ADSL is largely not a plug and play technology (regardless of purported selected field test results). There will likely be the need for a lot of handholding and technical support at the CO to trouble shoot bad lines. For instance, ADSL will NOT work over phone lines with bridge taps or load coils, and these are rampant on many RBOC lines - especially older ones - and they are not that easy to find. Further, poor quality older copper offers additional performance problems. And until the recent Supreme court appeal is ruled on (maybe a year or 2), what LEC would risk massive deployment costs only to be required to resell that investment to competitors at cost? And those COs that DO rollout trials and selected area service have been looking to a larger, better capitalized company for their ADSL solution - ALA. Though bandwidth solutions of ANY type are exciting, so many uncertainties make ADSL a risky investment - especially over the next year or so. Even Gates thought it would be 7+ years until even 25% of US homes will be wired for bandwidth - what percentage of these will be DMT? And of those what percent WSTL/AMTX? Not currently a stock for the faint of pocketbook... My perspective anyway- Steve

To: michael who wrote (28587)	11/12/1997 4:07:00 AM
From: Schmedley	Respond to of 31386

Michael, From a contrarian point of view this may be the best time to start acquiring new shares of AMTX/WSTL. Just as a miriad of voices can be heard expressing irrational exuberance at market tops, so too can the cacaphony of pessemism be heard at market bottoms. We seem to be hearing quite a few doom and gloomers lately.(Some of these same voices we've heard over and over,claiming they have no agenda) And all this just as: 1)We're about to consumate an incredibly symbiotic merger agreement. 2)announce major new deployments 3)the entire industry goes center stage at Comdex (when was the last time this sector showed weakness during COMDEX- Give me a BREAK!) If the little guys are going to get spooked by the MMs selling shares to each other on patheticly weak volume, then so be it.We all do what we must, but this time I'll be in there with the MM's buying more shares as the crowd panics. Best of Luck and good trading. Schmedley