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To: Tom Trader who wrote (14015)11/11/1997 9:26:00 PM
From: Nancy  Respond to of 50167
 
Tom,

what I see from MER to retrace back to sell-off low is brokerage stocks historically lead the market by 6 month. Now everything is so compressed, may be only 1-3 months. What I feel is if financials, supposedly one of the leadership sector, starts to give in with a favorable rate environment, we are not too far off from a re-test of bottom again.

Buying OEX puts cannot fully protect the long side - I painfully discover that only an aggressively deep-in-money short calls several months out could provide meaningful protection. Say, count a 10-20% drawdown on some tech issues and may be even 50% in the case of DD makers. :(




To: Tom Trader who wrote (14015)11/16/1997 9:51:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 50167
 
TT

Message from Tom Trader on Nov 11 1997 8:33PM EST
.. I think the odds still favor a decline to the 900 level on the SPX before the uptrend resumes...

I already have your messages bookmarked, but didn't catch up on this. Anyway, it wasn't 900, it was 903 :-)

ATG