I can't believe Vector Vest has a SELL recommendation on MRVC.
Are we in for a free fall folks ?
Stock Analysis of M R V Comm
Thank you for requesting an analysis of M R V Comm from VectorVest ProGraphics. The ticker symbol for M R V Comm
is MRVC. MRVC is traded on the NASDAQ and options are available on this stock.
PRICE: MRVC closed on 11-Nov-1997 at $25.90 per share.
VALUE: MRVC has a Value of $40.20 per share. Value is the foundation of the VectorVest system. It is a measure of
what a stock is currently worth. Value is based upon earnings, earnings growth rate, dividend payments, dividend growth
rate, and financial performance. Current interest and inflation rates also play an important role in the computation of
Value. When interest and/or inflation rates decrease, Value goes up. When interest rates and inflation increase, Value
goes down. Sooner or later a stock's Price and Value always converge.
RV (Relative Value): MRVC has an RV of 1.72. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RV of 1.72 is excellent. RV reflects
the long-term price appreciation potential of the stock compared to an alternative investment in AAA Corporate Bonds.
Stocks with RV ratings above 1.00 have attractive upside potential. A stock will have an RV greater than 1.00 when its
Value is greater than Price, and its Relative Safety (see below) and forecasted earnings growth rate are above average.
In some cases, however, a stock's RV will be above 1.00 even though its Value is well below Price. This happens when
a stock has an exemplary record of financial performance and an above average earnings growth rate. In this case, the
stock is currently selling at a premium, and the investor is banking on future earnings growth to drive the stock's price
higher. This information is very useful not only in knowing whether or not a stock has favorable price appreciation
potential, but it also solves the riddle of whether to buy high growth, high P/E, or low growth, low P/E stocks.
We believe that RV ratings above 1.00 are required to consistently achieve above average capital gains in the stock
market.
RS (Relative Safety): MRVC has an RS rating of 1.27. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RS of 1.27 is very good.
VectorVest looks at safety from the viewpoint of an equity investor (one who is buying stock of a company) rather than
that of a purchaser of debt (one who is lending money to the company). From this perspective, consistency of financial
and operating performance, stock price appreciation history, and price volatility are the key factors used in the evaluation
of Relative Safety (RS). Debt to equity ratio, capitalization, sales volume, business longevity and other factors are also
considered, but to a lesser degree.
VectorVest favors steady, predictable performers. All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. A stock with an RS
greater than 1.00 is safer and more predictable than the average of all stocks. A stock with an RS less than 1.00 is less
predictable and riskier than the average stock.
RT (Relative Timing): MRVC has an RT rating of 0.57. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an RT of 0.57 is poor. RT is a
fast, responsive, short-term price trend indicator. It analyzes the direction, magnitude, and dynamics of a stock's price
behavior over the last 13 weeks; then reflects and projects the short-term price performance of the stock. Once a stock's
Price has established a strong trend, it is expected to continue that trend for the short-term. If the trend dissipates, RT will
gravitate towards 1.00. Should the price change dramatically, RT will notice the crucial turning point. When warranted,
it will explode from a Price low and dive from a Price high.
All stocks are rated on a scale of 0.00 to 2.00. If RT is above 1.00, the stock's Price is in an uptrend. Below 1.00, the
stock's Price is in a downtrend.
VST-Vector (VST): MRVC has a VST-Vector rating of 1.24. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an VST of 1.24 is very good.
VST-Vector solves the dilemma of balancing Value, Safety and Timing. Stocks with high RV values often have low RS
values, or stocks with low RV and RS values have high RT's. How can we find the stocks with the best combinations of
Value, Safety, and Timing?
The classic vector formula (square root of the sum of the squares) handles this problem. It combines a set of forces into a
single indicator for ranking every stock in the VectorVest database. Stocks with the highest VST-Vector have the best
combinations of Value, Safety and Timing. These are the ones to own for above average capital application.
GRT (Growth Rate): MRVC has a GRT of 38 % per year. This is excellent. GRT stands for forecasted Earnings
Growth Rate in percent per year. GRT is updated each week for every stock. Watch GRT trends very carefully. If the
GRT trend is up, the stock's Price will likely rise. If the GRT trend is down, the stock's Price will increase more slowly,
cease to increase, or subsequently fall.
Recommendation (REC): MRVC has a Sell recommendation. REC reflects the cumulative effect of all the
VectorVest parameters working together. These parameters are designed to help investors buy safe, undervalued stocks
which are rising in price, and to avoid or sell risky, overvalued stocks which are falling in price.
VectorVest is tuned to give an "H" or "B" signal when a stock's price is approximately 10% above a recent low, and an
"S" signal when the stock's price is approximately 10% below a recent high. High RV, RS stocks are favored toward
receiving "B" REC's, and sheltered from receiving "S" RECs.
STOP-PRICE: MRVC has a Stop-Price of $26.50 per share. This is $0.60 or 2.3% above its current closing Price.
VectorVest analyzes over 6,000 stocks each day for Value, Safety and Timing, and calculates a Stop-Price for each stock.
These Stop-Prices are based upon 13 week moving averages of closing prices, and are fine-tuned according to each
stock's fundamentals.
In the VectorVest system, a stock gets a "B" or an "H" recommendation if its price is above its Stop-Price, and an "S"
recommendation if its price is below its Stop-Price.
DIV (Dividend): MRVC does not pay a dividend. VectorVest focuses on annual,regular, cash dividends indicated by
the most recent disbursement. Special distributions, one-time payments, stock dividends, etc., generally are not included
in Dividend (DIV).
DY (Dividend Yield): MRVC has a DY of 0.0 percent. This is below the current market average of 1.3 percent. DY
equals 100 x (DIV/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EY (Earnings Yield): MRVC has an EY of 4.56%. This is below the current market average of 5.07%. EY equals 100
x (EARNINGS PER SHARE/PRICE), and is expressed as a percentage.
EPS (Earnings Per Share): MRVC has an EPS of $1.18 per share. EPS stands for leading 12 months Earnings Per
Share. VectorVest determines this forecast from a combination of recent earnings performance and traditional fiscal
and/or calendar year earnings forecasts.
P/E (Price to Earnings Ratio): MRVC has a P/E ratio of 21.95. This ratio is computed daily based upon Price and
EPS. P/E = Price/EPS.
GPE (Growth to P/E Ratio): MRVC has a GPE of 1.73. This ratio suggests that This ratio suggests that MRVC is
undervalued. Growth to P/E ratio is a popular measure of stock valuation which compares Earnings Growth Rate (GRT)
to Price Earnings ratio (P/E). A stock is considered to be undervalued when GPE is greater than 1.00, and vice-versa.
VectorVest believes that RV is a much better indicator of long-term value. The RV of 1.72 for MRVC is excellent.
DS (Dividend Safety): MRVC has a DS of 0. On a scale of 0 to 99, a DS of 0 is poor. DS is defined as the assurance
that regular cash dividends will be declared and paid at current or at higher rates for the foreseeable future. Stocks with
DS values above 50 on a scale of 0 to 99 are above average in safety.
RISK (Dividend Risk): MRVC does not pay a dividend. All stocks in the VectorVest system that pay dividends are
classified as having Low, Medium or High Dividend Risk (RISK). Stocks with DS values above 50 are above average in
safety. These stocks are classified as having LOW or MEDIUM RISK. Stocks with DS values below 50 are below
average in safety and are classified as having HIGH Risk.
DG (Dividend Growth): MRVC has a DG of 0 percent per year. Dividend Growth is a subtle yet important indicator
of a company's historical financial performance and the board's current outlook on the future use of funds.
YSG-VECTOR (Yield-Safety-Growth Vector): MRVC has a YSG-Vector of 0.00. On a scale of 0.00 to 2.00, an
YSG-Vector rating of 0.00 is very poor. VectorVest combines Dividend YIELD, SAFETY and GROWTH into a single
parameter. YSG-Vector allows direct comparison of all dividend paying stocks. Stocks with the highest YSG-Vector
values have the best combinations of Dividend Yield, Safety and Growth. These are the stocks to buy for above average
current income and long-term growth.
VOL(100)s: MRVC traded 567300 shares on 11-Nov-1997.
AVG VOL(100)s: MRVC has an Average Volume of 511415. Average Volume is 50 day moving average of daily
volume as computed by VectorVest.
% VOL: MRVC had a Volume change of 10.9% from its 50 day moving average volume.
OPEN: MRVC opened trading at $25.80 per share on 11-Nov-1997.
HIGH: MRVC traded at a high of $26.50 per share on 11-Nov-1997.
LOW: MRVC traded at a low of $25.60 per share on 11-Nov-1997.
CLOSE: MRVC Closed trading at $25.90 per share on 11-Nov-1997.
% PRC: MRVC showed a Price change of 0.8% from the prior day's closing price.
INDUSTRY: MRVC has been assigned to the Telecomm (Equipment) Group. VectorVest classifies stocks into over
190 Industry Groups and 50 Business Sectors.
MRVC has well above average safety with well above average upside potential. It reflects a stock which is likely to give
well above average, quite consistent returns over the long term.
The basic strategy of VectorVest is to buy low risk, high reward stocks. We suggest that Prudent investors buy enough
high Relative Value, high Relative Safety stocks to keep the overall RV and RS ratings of their portfolios above 1.00. As
you do this, you'll find that your risk will go down and your investment performance will improve. Not a bad
combination.
Thank you for your interest in VectorVest ProGraphics. |
