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Biotech / Medical : ATIS is on the move! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Marshall Teitelbaum who wrote (1151)	11/12/1997 7:05:00 AM
From: Harry D. Kramer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2205

Marshall, I think the problem with ATIS in the near term is high expectations from investors, that, at least in the foreseeable future, cannot be fulfilled. The market gives ATIS a net technology value of around $500 million, which is, IMO, fair, but definitely not cheap. Disappointments at this level would hurt a lot. Although I am a ATIS shareholder now for almost two years, I never really felt comfortable to add to my position above the $12 level. Especially considering the fact that you can buy interesting biotech companies (with products in phase III or close to market) for a net technology value of below $200 million these days. On the positive side: I think ATIS has an excellent management team (Naughton & Benvenuto), it is still a leader in the tissue engineering field, it has one product close to market that has the potential to become a blockbuster product, and it has the right partner (S&N) to get Dermagraft (ulcers) to the patient. And, above all, it has a very interesting early-stage research pipeline. (But how do you value a technology or product that is at least 5 years away from market? Probably not at all.) On the negative side: It's a fairly new technology that will need more time than other products to establish a significant position on the market. I agree with you, Marshall, that the market for TC is (very) small. Partial-thickness, however, will help in the coming quarters. Another negative may be Chiron's Regranex. I know that you have already discussed this topic in full length in the past, but I think it will be a mistake to underestimate Regranex's potential. It is, above all, very likely that Regranex will get an earlier approval in the U.S. than Dermagraft. Chiron may get a headstart of 6-12 months. In addition, the product is easy to use and efficacy results are not that bad, either. Has anyone taken the time to read the transcript from the Regranex advisory committee meeting on the FDA website? I tried, but had to give up after 10 minutes. It's endless. Last, but not least, we have the uncertainty surrounding further FDA action regarding Dermagraft. I agree, a delay of the advisory panel of more than 6 months (from Nov.) would be a dramatic setback, and I would definitely reconsider my positive opinion on ATIS' future prospects. I think, without any news from the FDA regarding Dermagraft, we won't see ATIS trade above $16 in the next weeks and probably months (hopefully not). Even cartilage news wouldn't help, IMO. But a biotech investor who cares about weeks is probably investing in the wrong area anyway. Excellent work on this thread! Hope I can add some interesting points in the future. Good luck, Harry

To: Marshall Teitelbaum who wrote (1151)	11/12/1997 12:48:00 PM
From: Rick Strange	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2205

Marshall, A xenograpft joke. A woman was involved in a terrible auto accident and her face was burned severly. The Doctor told the husband they needed additional skin to graft onto her face. The husband donated some of his skin. The Doctor elected to collect the skin graft from the husband's buttocks. After the sugery was completed, everyone was astounded at the woman's new beauty. She looked younger and more beautiful than ever before! All her friends and relatives ranted and raved at ther youthful beauty! Alone with her husband one day she said, "Dear, how can I ever thank you for everything that you did for me. There is no way that I can repay you." He replied, "Oh don't worry, Honey, I get plenty of satisfaction every time that your mother comes over and kisses you on the cheek." Anyone that retaliates with a foreskin joke will endure a 5 for 1 ATIS reverse stock split.