wind: info, articles, my plan for 2011 investing:
Top 9 wind turbine manufacturers by market share in 2009:
Vestas (Denmark) (VWDRY.PK) 12.5%
GE Wind Energy (United States) (GE) 12.4%
Suzlon (India) + REpower (Germany) 9.8%
Sinovel (China) 9.2%
Enercon (Germany) 8.5%
Goldwind (China) 7.2%
Gamesa (Spain) (GCTAF.PK) 6.7%
Dongfang (China) 6.5%
Siemens Wind Power (Denmark / Germany) (SI) 5.9%
With improved equipment efficiency, improved turbine siting and higher hub height, the overall production efficiency (for wind power) has increased by 2-3 per cent annually over the last 15 years. renewableenergyworld.com
SI, #1 in offshore wind: The Siemens Renewable Energy Division, which consists mostly of the wind power business, recorded a bigger sales increase than any other unit in the quarter ended Sept. 30, rising 48 percent, to €977 million, or $1.3 billion ($5.2B annual rate). New orders rose 85 percent, to €1.5 billion, also a company best for the quarter.
The renewable energy unit’s operating profit margin of 10.6 percent lagged behind that of more conventional businesses, like providing equipment for fossil-fuel power plants, and fell short of Siemens’s own goal of a 12 percent to 16 percent margin. Still, the unit made €103 million for the quarter, and €368 million for the full fiscal year.
That was about 5 percent of total annual profit for Siemens, whose broad array of products also includes trains, factory equipment and X-ray machines...
To grow sharply, however, means getting a foothold in China, the world’s largest market for wind power...China, however, is also one of the most difficult markets for foreign companies because of government policies that favor local companies.
nytimes.com
Vestas: in late October the company announced that it plans to close a number of its manufacturing units, principally in Denmark. webcache.googleusercontent.com
GE, #1 in the U.S., $6B annual wind sales (80% in U.S., 10% in China)
Gamesa: over 30% market share in China in 2005, only 3% today. progressivefix.com
BP, owns/operates wind parks: BP Wind Energy has 1,205 megawatts of installed capacity in seven U.S. states, two new projects near completion in Idaho and Colorado, and two more in advanced stages of development. “Our business has been around since 2006 as part of BP’s push into the alternative energy space,” Graham said. “Over the last couple of years, we have invested in excess of three billion dollars of cash into physical assets of nine operating wind farms and two in construction.”
Shortly after BP entered the wind business, the company made the strategic decision to focus its resources in U.S. onshore wind...“We invest about $300 million a year. We’ve done it consistently and will continue to do so. We continue to build and operate.”
blogger.com
FAN recently hit a new low of $9.30, not much above the 2009 low of $8.49. The 2008 high was $30.91. The downtrend appears to be slowing, and I'm hopeful FAN will at least get back up to the 200dma ($10.9) soon.
my comment: I am gradually deciding my decision to buy the dips in FAN all through 2010 was a mistake. Reasons:
1. The winners in wind might be GE and SI, conglomerates for whom wind is only a small part of their business.
2. The other category of winner, is likely to be Suzlon, which dominates India, and the Chinese companies (Sinovel, Goldwind and Dongfang). These don't report using U.S. GAAP standards, aren't available yet on U.S. exchanges, and aren't in FAN.
3. Natgas prices look to stay low through 2011 at least. T.B. Pickens says natgas has to be $7 before wind is economic.
4. Wind technology isn't lowering costs as fast as solar. Solar seems more likely than wind, to have new technology that radically reduces costs.
5. NIMBY is worse with wind than solar. A lot of people think those towers spoil the view.
6. Wind, like geothermal, has already exploited all the best sites (reliable high wind near transmission lines).
7. The NIMBY problem isn't going to be solved, until deepwater floating wind towers (not visible from shore) are a proven technology, and we are probably 5-20 years away from that point.
I'm holding more FAN than I want, bought at $14-9.50. My plan for 2011 is to sell FAN heavily (at $11-13), while (very cautiously) buying dips ($9 and down). I'll try to tilt my holdings more toward solar and oil than wind. |
