To: richardred who wrote (2599 ) 1/9/2011 10:16:58 AM From: richardred Respond to of 7256 American Eagle stock rises despite dip in holiday sales Friday, January 07, 2011 4:10 AM (Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette)trackingBy Teresa F. Lindeman, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette Jan. 07--American Eagle Outfitters saw its stock price drop in early trading Thursday, then surge almost $2 a share and finally settle at $15.05, up 4 percent, when the markets closed. The South Side teen retail chain lately has played the role of the bright kid who keeps messing up, while investors seem inclined to believe that it'll figure things out sooner or later. Or perhaps consider a private equity takeover. Before the market opened Thursday, the company said it had not had the holiday season that officials were hoping for. Sales in stores open at least a year fell 11 percent. Total sales during the five weeks ended Jan. 1 were down 6 percent to $499 million. "With the exception of men's and women's denim, most key holiday categories were well below plan," said Judy Meehan, vice president of investor relations, in a recorded sales commentary. She said that led to additional discounts. Dow Jones reported Thursday that American Eagle had cancelled its planned presentation at the ICR XChange investor conference next week so it could focus on its business. The news was unwelcome from a retailer that has been working on a turnaround for a couple of years, with a combination of the recession and fashion issues providing regular challenges. Sales gains in the back-to-school season were followed by the lackluster holiday numbers. The company had projected earnings from continuing operations for the quarter ended Jan. 29 would be between 43 and 46 cents per share, but is now guiding to a range of 41 to 43 cents. There was grumbling. "The problem with AEO, in our view, is the inconsistency," wrote analyst Liz Dunn, at FBR Capital Markets, in a report lowering her quarterly earnings estimate. "The company cannot seem to string together a solid performance for more than a few months at a time. And with key competitors continuing to drive business with price, it is difficult for American Eagle Outfitters to be less promotional." Rival Abercrombie & Fitch has pushed more discounts this holiday season. On Thursday, the New Albany, Ohio, retailer reported a 15 percent increase in sales at stores open at least a year. Aeropostale, a lower-priced teen clothing chain, reported a 5 percent drop. "Both AEO and ARO continued to show signs that they may be struggling to hold ground to more promotional competitors," said analysts Adrienne Tennant and Simeon Siegel, with Janney Capital Markets, in a report issued Thursday. The believers have hung in there, perhaps hoping the team at the South Side headquarters will come up with fashion home runs that convince the teen crowd to buy more than jeans. "With AEO's more than $3 per share in cash on the balance sheet and a still decent brand, we believe that the stock has limited downside from here," said Ms. Dunn. Teresa F. Lindeman: tlindeman@post-gazette.com or 412-263-2018.istockanalyst.com