From: J
Sent: Fri, December 10, 2010 9:14:38 PM
Subject: Re: armageddon isnt a generation away
Just landed in hk, in homeward car.
Cx flight dep manila 60 min late.
Philippines is lucky, in that it shall be saved by outsiders, by those who wish to either avoid head-on with the new sovereign or those actively assisting the new sovereign.
Little ones might not be able to resist the cohort from shanghai and make a stand in hkg, but am guessing that they might snack in slower-still domains. Else we are dino-doomed.
Saw the london perturbation on the television, and thought it very tame, and had that "revolution is a tea party" feel.
The skill for revolution shall develop gradually. It is a beginning that is tracking true the revolutions past.
England is way overdue for a zero-state reset and all ingredients of empire fall are present in close-enough portions.
Afterthought, the expedited line for delayed flights relieves the 2-queue & multi-server immigration setup pileup, allowing the broken system (where individual slow and slower immigration officer accountability is hidden in the systemics) to continue.
Quantitative easing does the same for systemically broken societal financing system.
Reminder: continue to getgold
From: j
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 09:17:11
Subject: Re: Comments - Week of December 6
At manila airport, am standing in the most organized 2-queue & multi-server immigration setup pileup. The process shall take close to forever. I am in line knowing cx cannot take off without me, I hope and will come get me.
The tribe philippines is really quite advanced, a few years ahead of team usa in its descent into banana-republicdom but minus the body scanners. Am certain manila would get hand-me-down scanners at some juncture once they prove to be harmful at lax and sfo.
K, now hustled to expedited line as too many flights delayed.
From: A
Subject: RE: armageddon isnt a generation away
Jay, revolution on the streets of London – parliament, the treasury and royalty attacked!
zerohedge.com
From: j
Sent: 10 December 2010 09:02
Subject: Re: armageddon isnt a generation away
W may still be on outdated script of red interest rate up, green dollar up, orange inflation down, yellow gold down, economic fog clears, everybody happy, ...
We are at the event horizon where at some junction we would experience interest rate up, inflation up, dollar down, economy wilts, savings melt, knees weaken, taxes up, armed assaults up, gold up, up, up, three digits at a night, ...
Interest rate up nothing percent, arena temperature remain at Fahrenheit 451, and we must not let go of our gold that is in truth cheaper than it ever was in relationship to everything else.
Question: when does it get the darkest?
Answer: immediately after it becomes pitch black.
Times are good, n the sun has never been brighter.
Times shall change, between 7-10 year from now.
Towards zero-state reset.
This is why I am enthusiastic for revolution now, to get on with it, so that we rather than our kids pay.
From: M
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 2010 14:48:51 +0800
Subject: Re: armageddon isnt a generation away
Not to fear W,
These higher rates on the long end are raising the costs of buying a home just as much, which will in turn push down home prices again. The Fed will panic again and along will come QE3 and QE4 to "push down interest rates." So as people sell to the Fed, the Fed monetizes and gold goes higher again.
Only when / if the Fed gets serious about really fixing the problem and allows interest rates to go higher and prices to adjust to real levels, I wonder whether gold will really go down substantively for any length of time until then....
But we could see higher rates in the short run. Rates move higher and stay higher once there is the sniff of a real run on the USD.
On Fri, Dec 10, 2010 at 4:29 AM, H wrote:
I would say so far the reaction of bond yields is very similar to what happened during QE1. An increase in inflation expectations leads to rising bond yields.
Now, this effect means at the same time that the rise in bond yields can not be bearish for gold. If you look at what happened in the 1970's (a period of 'stagflation'), nominal bond yields and the gold price rose in concert most of the time. The reason was that inflation expectations rose just as fast, if not faster than bond yields, keeping real interest rates very low, resp. even negative for long stretches of time.
All that said, private sector deleveraging and the concomitant increase in the demand for money have so far kept obvious inflationary effects under wraps. The less obvious influence of inflation on relative prices is palpable (just look at commodities), but the 'general price level' as measured by the government's CPI is increasing at an extremely slow pace, in fact, the rate of change keeps decelerating (this is why Bernanke et al. are worrying about deflation).
If this continues I would expect bond yields to come down again, especially if the Fed should decide to slow down the pace of QE, or once the current QE program draws to a close. We can see in the ratios of production of capital goods to consumer goods that the Fed's monetary pumping has arrested the liquidation of malinvestments that was in train during 2008/9. We know that this liquidation process hasn't been finished yet because these ratios remain far above their historical averages and are expanding once again. From an investor's perspective what is important about that is that it suggests that as soon as monetary pumping slows down again, the liquidation process will resume. This should be reflected in lower stock and commodity prices and lower treasury yields (whith the caveat/wild card always that the market may lose confidence in the US treasury at some point in the future).
On Thu, Dec 9, 2010 at 7:04 PM, W wrote:
I’m in the camp with r below. The govt has funded themselves at 2.5-3% and if we break above 4% which may happen next year if there’s a run on the confidence of usa , then we’ll see a digital outcome where yields may spike up dramatically.
As I’ve said, tsys have already broken higher in yield since mid oct and I’m further convicted that this trend is unbroken after qe2 announcement. This is v strong trend.
Higher yields is a threat to higher gold prices and I like the positions of the mkt which are overbot gold and undersold tsys.
The death scenario is stagflation: persistent high g7 unemployment because there are plenty of cheap labor globally and fed forced to hike rates to control infl. Then we don’t get higher tax receipts in a booming economy to offset the higher funding costs.
No, we don’t have to wait too much longer for Armageddon because didn’t the mayans say 2012 is the end of the world? This coincides nicely with the fed funds contract which suggest fed raising rates in 2012.
From: R
Sent: Thursday, December 09, 2010 9:13 AM
Subject: Re: Cables Show U.S. Pressed Germany on C.I.A. Case - NYTimes.com
The country is in the hands of my generation, a bunch of selfish old farts. We will suck the blood out of your generation to accommodate a life style we never earned. We also made sure that your generation is too fat and stupid to revolt.
Seriously, I do agree that boomers lack savings.
My favorite story is about these friends of mine, husband and wife both in their early 60s, both attorneys. They went to their investment advisor to discuss retirement plans. They think they can live on $250k per year, apparently quite a sacrifice from their current life style.
THIS COUPLE HAS LESS THAN $1 MILLION IN SAVINGS.
What on earth gave them the idea that they can retire? They now realize that they are going to work until they die, or retire and live like peasants.
On Thu, Dec 9, 2010 at 8:53 AM, R wrote:
Actually I am not sure I agree with R on this. I don't think we will have to wait a generation for the US to have its own government funding crisis. If this is the case, the people who will be screwed over (here in the US anyway) will be R's generation -- the savers, who will see their savings evaporate as the purchasing power of the dollar plummets. And while many "boomers" lack savings, many of them do not, and unfortunately they tend to think they are being "safe" by keeping their retirement warchests in cash or bonds. This applies not just to individuals' savings, but to pension funds that are loaded to the gills with bonds.
People like R who know how to protect themselves will be spared, but unfortunately that represents a tiny minority amongst his fellow savers. IMHO they're the ones who will bankroll this whole debt binge in the end, as inflation effectively transfers their saved wealth to everyone else.
On Dec 9, 2010, at 7:30 AM, R wrote:
B,
you got me in the wrong group. In fact, you got the wrong group.
I do not have to "pay". It is going to be your young daughter, and M's, and J's kids who will have to pay.
On Thu, Dec 9, 2010 at 5:24 AM, W wrote:
nytimes.com
Amazing. Innocent German kidnapped by CIA. Flown to Afghanistan where he was sodomized,tortured,injected with drugs and left by a roadside to die. US pressure prevents accountability or justice. Not even a friggin' apology.
Amerika-land of the free,home of the brave. Right.
And M,R,S et al have to pay for this shit. The reason Assange has a problem is he's letting some of the wrong cats out of the bag.
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