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Strategies & Market Trends : The Millennium Crash -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (1572)	11/12/1997 1:39:00 AM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Hi Thomas, I recommend the short term update at elliotwave. If you look at the August correction there is a 5 wave sequence, with a triple test of the 7600 area. I would suspect we could have the same here. According to McClelland on TV today, we have never had a correction like the one we had on 10/27 without a least one retest of the lows in 40 years. A crash ala 87' is still a possibility imo, but would need some significant external event and now is the window of opportunity for that event, as 3rd waves (which we are commencing now) according to Prechter are the strongest. Notice that it has been over 3 months failing to reach new Dow highs and is nobody except media shy Robert Prechter has announced the bear. I wonder if we've still failed to take out 8300 in 6 months from now they will still consider this a bull market -g- Keeps the JQ Public pouring in the fund money - aaay! bb/

To: Thomas C (Hijacked) who wrote (1572)	11/12/1997 11:59:00 AM
From: Chip McVickar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5676

Tom - Did not catch the article but will look it up. Have followed Prechter for some time now and have been familiar with the Elliot Wave system for many years. He has been calling for a significant bear market for some years and if you followed his timing over the last 5, you would have missed this last bull push. Eliot Waves seem to be okay in charting large movements in market trends....but are not so acurate in predicting short-term swings. He has advised preserving capital and maintaining cash for quite some time. But his work is valuable as a background filter to remember that market bubbles are for real and follow path-ways. . I personally do not believe that his Armageddon is around the corner. With that said....in his theories, the fiscal, monetary and political pressures placed upon the worlds financial systems during this wave will be substantial. However, that does not mean we will see 2000 on the Dow and revisit the great depressions of history. I believe the Eliot systems are valuable, but must be placed within the context of the present historical perspective at work during the period of the 3rd waves. . We will probably whitness some world financial explosion due to these predicted pressures and may have watched those beginnings since July '97, actualy from Japans slide in 1990, but the "systems" in place today will impede the melt-down and impel central banks, governments, monitary funds, etc. to intervene and prevent a major catastrophe. The computerized and interwoven financial structures in place today are capable of quelling any such meltdowns. Remember, our markets are "free"...only to a certain degree and the central banks are very powerful. By alrights and acording to old model standards...the real estate and banking crisis of the late 80's, should have "sunk the boat". . Only the armegeddon of a major international war like those in the history of Europe, Japan and China will cause such devastation and world chaos as predicted by Prechter and others. . Other books you might find interesting: The K Wave by David Barker The Great Depression of 1990 by Dr. Ravi Batra Best Regards Chip